$CKB rose 30% in 24 hours, but the most crowded side in the futures market is short, and the funding rate has already fallen to -0.225%. That’s more worth watching than the price itself.
First, the price action. The 1-hour candle at 4 a.m. shot straight from 0.001744 to 0.002178, with 2.72 million U in trading volume. The 24-hour high reached 0.002196. Since then, the price has steadily given back its gains and is now at 0.001845, down about 16% from the high.
The real signal is in open interest. Over the past 24 hours, futures open interest rose from 1.37 billion tokens to 3.55 billion, more than doubling. Over the same period, the top traders’ long/short ratio fell from 1.85 to 1.19, while the retail account long/short ratio fell from 1.78 to 1.54. New positions are clearly skewed short, and big traders added shorts after the rally.
The catch is that shorts have to pay. The -0.225% funding rate settles every 8 hours, meaning shorts have to pay nearly 0.7% per day at this rate. The more crowded the position, the easier it is for even a small green candle to force shorts to cover. In this kind of setup, a decline depends on spot selling, while a rally is driven by shorts being forced to buy back—the moves can come quickly in either direction.
To be clear: the price has fallen 16% from its high, but open interest has risen instead of falling. That means longs weren’t closing out during the decline; new short positions were being opened. Those shorts entered halfway up the rally, with their cost basis concentrated between 0.0018 and 0.0020. If the price gets back above 0.0020, their unrealized losses will grow, and with funding payments due every 8 hours, the pressure to cover is very real.
On the other hand, if spot buyers can’t absorb the selling and the price breaks below 0.00172, that would show this move was just a one-off spike—and the shorts would be right.
Technically, the 1-hour RSI is 58.8, not overbought. The price is above EMA12 (0.001826) and EMA26 (0.001723), while EMA50 is at 0.001602; the bullish alignment remains intact. The Bollinger middle band at 0.001756 is the first support level, while the upper band near 0.00213 and the previous high at 0.0022 form a resistance zone.
My take: as long as the 0.00172 level holds, the combination of negative funding and big traders adding shorts looks more like fuel building for the next short squeeze than confirmation of a top. I’m not chasing the price; I’d only consider following with a small position if it retests around 0.00176 and holds.
#CKB #FuturesOpenInterest
Personal opinion
First, the price action. The 1-hour candle at 4 a.m. shot straight from 0.001744 to 0.002178, with 2.72 million U in trading volume. The 24-hour high reached 0.002196. Since then, the price has steadily given back its gains and is now at 0.001845, down about 16% from the high.
The real signal is in open interest. Over the past 24 hours, futures open interest rose from 1.37 billion tokens to 3.55 billion, more than doubling. Over the same period, the top traders’ long/short ratio fell from 1.85 to 1.19, while the retail account long/short ratio fell from 1.78 to 1.54. New positions are clearly skewed short, and big traders added shorts after the rally.
The catch is that shorts have to pay. The -0.225% funding rate settles every 8 hours, meaning shorts have to pay nearly 0.7% per day at this rate. The more crowded the position, the easier it is for even a small green candle to force shorts to cover. In this kind of setup, a decline depends on spot selling, while a rally is driven by shorts being forced to buy back—the moves can come quickly in either direction.
To be clear: the price has fallen 16% from its high, but open interest has risen instead of falling. That means longs weren’t closing out during the decline; new short positions were being opened. Those shorts entered halfway up the rally, with their cost basis concentrated between 0.0018 and 0.0020. If the price gets back above 0.0020, their unrealized losses will grow, and with funding payments due every 8 hours, the pressure to cover is very real.
On the other hand, if spot buyers can’t absorb the selling and the price breaks below 0.00172, that would show this move was just a one-off spike—and the shorts would be right.
Technically, the 1-hour RSI is 58.8, not overbought. The price is above EMA12 (0.001826) and EMA26 (0.001723), while EMA50 is at 0.001602; the bullish alignment remains intact. The Bollinger middle band at 0.001756 is the first support level, while the upper band near 0.00213 and the previous high at 0.0022 form a resistance zone.
My take: as long as the 0.00172 level holds, the combination of negative funding and big traders adding shorts looks more like fuel building for the next short squeeze than confirmation of a top. I’m not chasing the price; I’d only consider following with a small position if it retests around 0.00176 and holds.
#CKB #FuturesOpenInterest
Personal opinion