How long can this U.S. stock rebound last?
After the bad news was priced in, money flowed back into heavyweight stocks like $NVDA and $MSFT . The real test is just beginning.
On the macro front, the U.S. September CPI report is due soon. Markets are betting on no rate hike in October, but geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are roiling oil prices. The risk of a second wave of inflation could push the Fed to turn hawkish.
On the micro front, Q3 earnings season is kicking off.
▶️ Financial giants
JPMorgan Chase $JPM and Goldman Sachs $GS report results, putting the resilience of the economy and credit markets to the test.
▶️ Chip industry bellwethers
ASML $ASML and TSMC $TSM take the stage. The key points are ASML’s EUV order volume and TSMC’s outlook for CoWoS capacity and actual AI demand.
Everyone else is watching the earnings numbers; I’m watching AI shift from capex frenzy to the test of delivering ROI. For the past two quarters, stocks went up as long as companies poured money into AI. Now the market wants to see real returns. If chip giants’ guidance falls short of expectations, tech stocks could face valuation compression.
This week will likely see choppy trading near the highs. If TSMC’s guidance beats expectations and CPI cools, tech stocks could begin another leg higher. Conversely, a spike in oil prices combined with weak guidance would make a pullback inevitable. Are you bullish on semiconductor guidance this time around?
DYOR
After the bad news was priced in, money flowed back into heavyweight stocks like $NVDA and $MSFT . The real test is just beginning.
On the macro front, the U.S. September CPI report is due soon. Markets are betting on no rate hike in October, but geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are roiling oil prices. The risk of a second wave of inflation could push the Fed to turn hawkish.
On the micro front, Q3 earnings season is kicking off.
▶️ Financial giants
JPMorgan Chase $JPM and Goldman Sachs $GS report results, putting the resilience of the economy and credit markets to the test.
▶️ Chip industry bellwethers
ASML $ASML and TSMC $TSM take the stage. The key points are ASML’s EUV order volume and TSMC’s outlook for CoWoS capacity and actual AI demand.
Everyone else is watching the earnings numbers; I’m watching AI shift from capex frenzy to the test of delivering ROI. For the past two quarters, stocks went up as long as companies poured money into AI. Now the market wants to see real returns. If chip giants’ guidance falls short of expectations, tech stocks could face valuation compression.
This week will likely see choppy trading near the highs. If TSMC’s guidance beats expectations and CPI cools, tech stocks could begin another leg higher. Conversely, a spike in oil prices combined with weak guidance would make a pullback inevitable. Are you bullish on semiconductor guidance this time around?
DYOR