#BTC Market Analysis 10/12
Yesterday, a large bullish candle broke straight through resistance. The short plan is canceled—don't force a short.
Yesterday's setup—“reject higher prices, fall back to 83300, then short if the rebound fails”—never appeared. Last night, price broke above 83500, then closed above it for four consecutive hours. It dipped to a low of 83224 on the pullback, but recovered before closing.
Price is currently around 83900. Over the next 1–3 days, the bias is toward a continued rebound. Today, wait for a pullback to go long; don't chase the rally.
1. Structure is strengthening, but this move still includes short covering
Both the daily and 4-hour charts have reclaimed EMA21. However, over the same 24-hour window, price rose about 1.2% while OI fell about 1.8%. This looks like short covering, so we can't assume that bulls are continuing to add positions.
Last night's news of an “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine boosted risk appetite, but the news doesn't mean a full ceasefire is already in effect.
2. Buy the pullback; don't chase near 84000
Watch 83300–83500, near the breakout retest zone and the 4-hour EMA7. If price finds support on the 1-hour chart and reclaims 83400, consider a small long position.
Stop loss at 82500. First target: 85000, taking profits in stages; then watch 86500. If a 4-hour candle closes back below 83100, cancel this long setup.
Once 83500 has been reclaimed, don't force yesterday's bearish outlook onto today's market. The bias can change with the structure, but still wait for the right entry.
⚠️ Personal market analysis, not investment advice.
Yesterday, a large bullish candle broke straight through resistance. The short plan is canceled—don't force a short.
Yesterday's setup—“reject higher prices, fall back to 83300, then short if the rebound fails”—never appeared. Last night, price broke above 83500, then closed above it for four consecutive hours. It dipped to a low of 83224 on the pullback, but recovered before closing.
Price is currently around 83900. Over the next 1–3 days, the bias is toward a continued rebound. Today, wait for a pullback to go long; don't chase the rally.
1. Structure is strengthening, but this move still includes short covering
Both the daily and 4-hour charts have reclaimed EMA21. However, over the same 24-hour window, price rose about 1.2% while OI fell about 1.8%. This looks like short covering, so we can't assume that bulls are continuing to add positions.
Last night's news of an “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine boosted risk appetite, but the news doesn't mean a full ceasefire is already in effect.
2. Buy the pullback; don't chase near 84000
Watch 83300–83500, near the breakout retest zone and the 4-hour EMA7. If price finds support on the 1-hour chart and reclaims 83400, consider a small long position.
Stop loss at 82500. First target: 85000, taking profits in stages; then watch 86500. If a 4-hour candle closes back below 83100, cancel this long setup.
Once 83500 has been reclaimed, don't force yesterday's bearish outlook onto today's market. The bias can change with the structure, but still wait for the right entry.
⚠️ Personal market analysis, not investment advice.