Russia-Ukraine update: Trump announced that an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine would take effect immediately. Zelensky welcomed the announcement and said Ukrainian forces had received the relevant orders, but Ukrainian energy facilities are still being attacked. Putin has yet to clearly confirm it, and it’s unclear what he’s planning. If the ceasefire holds, it would be good news for energy prices and inflation. But the more important variable remains the Middle East: only if tensions there genuinely ease and energy supplies recover can inflationary pressures be expected to fall further.