$MAGIC Last night, I thought shorts would get squeezed. Instead, the price fell from 0.1076 to a new low of 0.0926. I got this one wrong.
My reasoning at the time was: funding was -0.46%, so shorts were paying nearly half a percent every 8 hours and wouldn’t be able to hold out for long before covering. Looking back now, shorts did exit, but they weren’t squeezed out—they left with profits.
Open interest fell from 141.3 million tokens to 112.6 million, a drop of about 20%; the funding rate went from -0.47% back to -0.09%. Open interest fell, funding turned positive, and the price dropped at the same time. That shows the exiting shorts were taking profit at lower levels, while buying from those covering wasn’t enough to support the price.
What really threw off my call was the large traders. Their long/short position ratio is still 1.25, with longs accounting for 55.6%. They’ve remained bullish, but the price hasn’t followed. I gave too much weight last night to the signal that large traders were leaning long but couldn’t stop the decline. The retail account long/short ratio also slipped from 1.01 to 0.98. Dip buyers haven’t added to their positions, both sides are sitting on the sidelines, and trading volume has shrunk from $15.7 million during the hour of the flash crash to just a few hundred thousand per hour. Nobody is willing to step in here.
Technically, the 1-hour price at 0.099 is below the EMA50 at 0.1013. My condition last night was that it hold above the EMA50, and it has now lost that level. The RSI has recovered from 37.6 to 42, but this is just a small bounce after being oversold, not yet in strong territory. Without supporting volume, this kind of bounce can easily get sold back down. The EMA20 at 0.1045 is the first resistance; the EMA200 at 0.0825 is the last line of support in the broader structure.
I’ve changed my view: most of the fuel has already burned off, and the short-squeeze scenario is off the table. Until the price gets back above 0.1045, I see this as a consolidation phase after a spike, not the start of a reversal. If 0.0926 breaks again, I’m watching 0.0825. I’ll only reconsider the short-squeeze scenario if open interest starts rising again, funding turns deeply negative once more, and the price gets back above 0.1045.
I was wrong, and I’ll own it. I’m still staying away from this coin. These are my personal views.
#MAGIC #Futures open interest
My reasoning at the time was: funding was -0.46%, so shorts were paying nearly half a percent every 8 hours and wouldn’t be able to hold out for long before covering. Looking back now, shorts did exit, but they weren’t squeezed out—they left with profits.
Open interest fell from 141.3 million tokens to 112.6 million, a drop of about 20%; the funding rate went from -0.47% back to -0.09%. Open interest fell, funding turned positive, and the price dropped at the same time. That shows the exiting shorts were taking profit at lower levels, while buying from those covering wasn’t enough to support the price.
What really threw off my call was the large traders. Their long/short position ratio is still 1.25, with longs accounting for 55.6%. They’ve remained bullish, but the price hasn’t followed. I gave too much weight last night to the signal that large traders were leaning long but couldn’t stop the decline. The retail account long/short ratio also slipped from 1.01 to 0.98. Dip buyers haven’t added to their positions, both sides are sitting on the sidelines, and trading volume has shrunk from $15.7 million during the hour of the flash crash to just a few hundred thousand per hour. Nobody is willing to step in here.
Technically, the 1-hour price at 0.099 is below the EMA50 at 0.1013. My condition last night was that it hold above the EMA50, and it has now lost that level. The RSI has recovered from 37.6 to 42, but this is just a small bounce after being oversold, not yet in strong territory. Without supporting volume, this kind of bounce can easily get sold back down. The EMA20 at 0.1045 is the first resistance; the EMA200 at 0.0825 is the last line of support in the broader structure.
I’ve changed my view: most of the fuel has already burned off, and the short-squeeze scenario is off the table. Until the price gets back above 0.1045, I see this as a consolidation phase after a spike, not the start of a reversal. If 0.0926 breaks again, I’m watching 0.0825. I’ll only reconsider the short-squeeze scenario if open interest starts rising again, funding turns deeply negative once more, and the price gets back above 0.1045.
I was wrong, and I’ll own it. I’m still staying away from this coin. These are my personal views.
#MAGIC #Futures open interest