#BTC Market Analysis 10/11
Liquidity was thin over the weekend, and price churned around 83000 all night.
Yesterday’s high was 83137. Price entered the 83000–83500 resistance zone, but didn’t see a sustained pullback, and the 80500 target was not reached.
Price is currently around 83000. This pullback is not over yet, so today I’m still focused on shorting rebounds—but I won’t open a short right here.
1. Resistance hasn’t been reclaimed; buyers and sellers are still battling it out
The daily EMA21 is around 83100, and the 1-hour EMA200 is around 83600, so overhead resistance remains. Open interest rose just 0.28% over 24 hours, aggressive sellers have a slight edge, and the funding rate is mildly negative. There’s no clear sign of a breakout driven by a surge in positions, but a short squeeze is still a risk.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $21.1 million on Friday, but the total for the week was still a net outflow of around $679 million. Spot buying has yet to return in full.
2. If you’re flat, wait for a better entry; if you’re already short, don’t add to your position
First, wait to see if a push into 83300–83700 fails. If the 1-hour candle closes back below 83300 and the subsequent rebound fails to reclaim it, then consider a small short position.
Stop-loss at 84400. First target: take partial profits around 81600, then look toward 80500. If a 4-hour candle closes above 83500 and price holds that level on a retest, cancel the short setup—don’t stubbornly hold on.
Today’s opportunity is a pullback after a failed push higher, not betting that price must fall just because it’s been moving sideways. If the setup doesn’t materialize, stay out.
⚠️ Personal market analysis, not investment advice.
Liquidity was thin over the weekend, and price churned around 83000 all night.
Yesterday’s high was 83137. Price entered the 83000–83500 resistance zone, but didn’t see a sustained pullback, and the 80500 target was not reached.
Price is currently around 83000. This pullback is not over yet, so today I’m still focused on shorting rebounds—but I won’t open a short right here.
1. Resistance hasn’t been reclaimed; buyers and sellers are still battling it out
The daily EMA21 is around 83100, and the 1-hour EMA200 is around 83600, so overhead resistance remains. Open interest rose just 0.28% over 24 hours, aggressive sellers have a slight edge, and the funding rate is mildly negative. There’s no clear sign of a breakout driven by a surge in positions, but a short squeeze is still a risk.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $21.1 million on Friday, but the total for the week was still a net outflow of around $679 million. Spot buying has yet to return in full.
2. If you’re flat, wait for a better entry; if you’re already short, don’t add to your position
First, wait to see if a push into 83300–83700 fails. If the 1-hour candle closes back below 83300 and the subsequent rebound fails to reclaim it, then consider a small short position.
Stop-loss at 84400. First target: take partial profits around 81600, then look toward 80500. If a 4-hour candle closes above 83500 and price holds that level on a retest, cancel the short setup—don’t stubbornly hold on.
Today’s opportunity is a pullback after a failed push higher, not betting that price must fall just because it’s been moving sideways. If the setup doesn’t materialize, stay out.
⚠️ Personal market analysis, not investment advice.