Two-thirds of options are betting on BTC surging to $95,000, but market math says the most comfortable settlement price at month-end is $78,000—the place where buyers are most bullish is exactly where sellers are happiest.
On October 30, around 140,844 BTC options on Deribit will expire, with a notional value of approximately $11.69 billion (TradingView estimates it at $10.7–11.3 billion). That’s about 35% of the platform’s total Bitcoin options open interest and the largest single-day options expiry of the year.
The data paints an interesting picture:
1) Bullish sentiment is overwhelming: about two-thirds of contracts are calls, with a call-to-put ratio close to 2:1;
2) The largest single position is in $95,000 calls, totaling around 24,000 BTC, with a notional value of approximately $2.1 billion;
3) But the settlement price that options sellers (mainly institutional market makers) would be most comfortable with—the “max pain” price—is $78,000–$79,000, well below the current price of around $83,000;
4) $80,000 is a key level: the largest hedging positions for both the October 16 and October 30 expiries are concentrated there.
What does this mean? It’s not a bullish or bearish signal, but a volatility amplifier. Buyers are betting on a rally before month-end, but in the week leading up to expiry, market makers’ hedging flows could pull the price toward this “comfort zone” of $79,000–$80,000—the more buyers there are, the easier that pull may be. In several past major expiries, BTC swung sharply around key price levels and only picked a direction after expiry. The price has just bounced from last week’s low, so if you’re trading futures, pay extra attention to volatility over the next couple of weeks and keep an eye on $80,000. The October 16 expiry comes first, serving as a preview of the October 30 expiry.
$BTC
#BTCOptionsExpiry
Ahead of expiry, would you reduce your position to avoid volatility, or hold steady and wait for the market to show its direction?
I’ll keep tracking data like this—follow me to stay in the loop.
Data as of: 2026-10-11 00:12 UTC
Source: Pluang; TradingView News (CryptoBriefing)
For informational purposes only; this is not investment advice.
On October 30, around 140,844 BTC options on Deribit will expire, with a notional value of approximately $11.69 billion (TradingView estimates it at $10.7–11.3 billion). That’s about 35% of the platform’s total Bitcoin options open interest and the largest single-day options expiry of the year.
The data paints an interesting picture:
1) Bullish sentiment is overwhelming: about two-thirds of contracts are calls, with a call-to-put ratio close to 2:1;
2) The largest single position is in $95,000 calls, totaling around 24,000 BTC, with a notional value of approximately $2.1 billion;
3) But the settlement price that options sellers (mainly institutional market makers) would be most comfortable with—the “max pain” price—is $78,000–$79,000, well below the current price of around $83,000;
4) $80,000 is a key level: the largest hedging positions for both the October 16 and October 30 expiries are concentrated there.
What does this mean? It’s not a bullish or bearish signal, but a volatility amplifier. Buyers are betting on a rally before month-end, but in the week leading up to expiry, market makers’ hedging flows could pull the price toward this “comfort zone” of $79,000–$80,000—the more buyers there are, the easier that pull may be. In several past major expiries, BTC swung sharply around key price levels and only picked a direction after expiry. The price has just bounced from last week’s low, so if you’re trading futures, pay extra attention to volatility over the next couple of weeks and keep an eye on $80,000. The October 16 expiry comes first, serving as a preview of the October 30 expiry.
$BTC
#BTCOptionsExpiry
Ahead of expiry, would you reduce your position to avoid volatility, or hold steady and wait for the market to show its direction?
I’ll keep tracking data like this—follow me to stay in the loop.
Data as of: 2026-10-11 00:12 UTC
Source: Pluang; TradingView News (CryptoBriefing)
For informational purposes only; this is not investment advice.