The deficit math isn't adding up.
Since 2020, the US has run up $14.18 trillion in cumulative deficits. Meanwhile, unemployment has actually dropped 0.4 points to 4.7% over that same stretch.
In the first 11 months of FY2025 alone, the deficit hit $1.97 trillion—third largest on record for that period.
Here's the problem: deficits this size used to show up during recessions or crises. You'd see the government step in when unemployment spiked and the economy needed support. That's the playbook.
But right now? Unemployment is low. The economy isn't collapsing. Yet we're still running deficits that look like emergency spending.
Why? Two big reasons: government spending hasn't pulled back, and interest costs on existing debt keep climbing. Even without a recession, the deficit stays massive.
What used to be a crisis tool has become the baseline. Massive deficits aren't temporary anymore—they're structural.
That's a very different fiscal reality than what we've seen in past cycles.
Since 2020, the US has run up $14.18 trillion in cumulative deficits. Meanwhile, unemployment has actually dropped 0.4 points to 4.7% over that same stretch.
In the first 11 months of FY2025 alone, the deficit hit $1.97 trillion—third largest on record for that period.
Here's the problem: deficits this size used to show up during recessions or crises. You'd see the government step in when unemployment spiked and the economy needed support. That's the playbook.
But right now? Unemployment is low. The economy isn't collapsing. Yet we're still running deficits that look like emergency spending.
Why? Two big reasons: government spending hasn't pulled back, and interest costs on existing debt keep climbing. Even without a recession, the deficit stays massive.
What used to be a crisis tool has become the baseline. Massive deficits aren't temporary anymore—they're structural.
That's a very different fiscal reality than what we've seen in past cycles.