Bitcoin May Have Entered a New Market Regime of “Low Volatility, High Extremes”
October 9 — According to a market analysis by CoinDesk, Bitcoin is displaying a rare and contradictory set of market characteristics. Overall annualized volatility has eased considerably, yet extreme price moves are occurring more frequently than during the 2018 bear market.
Data shows that Bitcoin’s current annualized volatility is around 46%, down sharply from 84% in 2018, making overall volatility appear much more subdued. But falling volatility does not mean price action has become stable.
So far in 2026, Bitcoin has had 10 “3-sigma” extreme-volatility days—days when the daily move exceeds three times its 30-day realized volatility. That is more than the eight such days recorded during the entire 2018 bear market.
Compared with traditional assets, Bitcoin’s annualized volatility since 2024 has been on par with Nvidia’s, at around 47%. But over the same period, Bitcoin has had 26 trading days with moves exceeding three standard deviations, far more than Nvidia’s 8, the S&P 500’s 16, and gold’s 12.
Market analysts say that shocks from the macroeconomic environment, combined with leverage in derivatives markets and crowded positions being squeezed, are the main reasons extreme volatility keeps occurring.
Specifically, when investors sell large amounts of options and bet that markets will remain calm, unexpected news can easily force those positions to be closed out all at once, amplifying price swings further.
Fortunately, continued inflows from institutional investors and improved market liquidity have also given the market the capacity to absorb these sharp moves, preventing an uncontrolled cascade of selling.
Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers cautioned that traditional Value at Risk (VaR) models struggle to measure tail risk in extreme market conditions. Investors should pay more attention to measures focused on extreme scenarios, such as Expected Shortfall.
Overall, greater institutional participation, deeper market liquidity, and improved risk management have indeed strengthened the market’s ability to withstand shocks. But that does not mean extreme volatility is going away.
Finally, do you think this “low volatility, many extremes” pattern will become the new normal for Bitcoin’s price movements?
#比特币市场波动率
October 9 — According to a market analysis by CoinDesk, Bitcoin is displaying a rare and contradictory set of market characteristics. Overall annualized volatility has eased considerably, yet extreme price moves are occurring more frequently than during the 2018 bear market.
Data shows that Bitcoin’s current annualized volatility is around 46%, down sharply from 84% in 2018, making overall volatility appear much more subdued. But falling volatility does not mean price action has become stable.
So far in 2026, Bitcoin has had 10 “3-sigma” extreme-volatility days—days when the daily move exceeds three times its 30-day realized volatility. That is more than the eight such days recorded during the entire 2018 bear market.
Compared with traditional assets, Bitcoin’s annualized volatility since 2024 has been on par with Nvidia’s, at around 47%. But over the same period, Bitcoin has had 26 trading days with moves exceeding three standard deviations, far more than Nvidia’s 8, the S&P 500’s 16, and gold’s 12.
Market analysts say that shocks from the macroeconomic environment, combined with leverage in derivatives markets and crowded positions being squeezed, are the main reasons extreme volatility keeps occurring.
Specifically, when investors sell large amounts of options and bet that markets will remain calm, unexpected news can easily force those positions to be closed out all at once, amplifying price swings further.
Fortunately, continued inflows from institutional investors and improved market liquidity have also given the market the capacity to absorb these sharp moves, preventing an uncontrolled cascade of selling.
Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers cautioned that traditional Value at Risk (VaR) models struggle to measure tail risk in extreme market conditions. Investors should pay more attention to measures focused on extreme scenarios, such as Expected Shortfall.
Overall, greater institutional participation, deeper market liquidity, and improved risk management have indeed strengthened the market’s ability to withstand shocks. But that does not mean extreme volatility is going away.
Finally, do you think this “low volatility, many extremes” pattern will become the new normal for Bitcoin’s price movements?
#比特币市场波动率