🔍 Hash rate is collapsing, but BTC hasn’t fallen? The market is putting real money behind this thesis
📊 Key data
1. Mining rig shipments surged by 376,000 units (September data)
2. The BTC hash rate index fell from 5.7 to 4.8 (past 24 hours)
3. Open interest in CME Bitcoin futures increased by 123,000 contracts
4. Institutional investors made net purchases of $316M in cryptocurrency last week
5. The size of major short accounts expanded to $288B (Source: CoinGlass)
📝 Analysis
💡 Impact assessment: A sustained hash rate collapse could support a bottom above $63.2K
- Mining companies’ financial reports show overcapacity, while price wars have pushed hash rate costs below break-even. If the hash rate index falls below 4.0 again over the next two weeks, this thesis is invalidated. Simply put: miners are testing the limits with real money, but they haven’t reached the point of giving up yet.
- The movements of whale accounts deserve closer attention. Over the past 5 days, 9 addresses holding more than $1B each began adding to their positions, mainly in the $60K–$61K range. This capital is shadow money from traditional financial institutions. Their moves typically lag the market by 6–12 months, but this time they are unusually early.
💡 Impact assessment: The window for ETF inflows may open as early as this week
- Institutional buyers have priced in hash rate risks more than expected. If US inflation data surprises to the upside again (for example, if core PCE exceeds 4.8%), a wave of ETF subscriptions could arrive early. If CME Bitcoin futures break above $70K next week, this thesis is invalidated.
- Messages from a contact indicate that a key SEC commissioner recently hinted at an internal meeting that the regulatory framework for “stable tokens” is largely complete, though the wording left room for interpretation. Expectations of regulatory easing are building, but this time we’re watching how quickly it translates into real money.
💡 Impact assessment: $60K–$62K is a key support zone
- All current technical indicators (RSI at 48, Bollinger Bands contracting) and fund flows (OnChain data shows a decline in liquidations of small positions) are signaling that downside is limited. If Bitcoin falls below $59K and loses the 200-day moving average (around $58.7K), this support level will fail. Simply put: this is no time to panic; it’s time to watch for when the final hash rate defense line breaks.
💰 This article is not sponsored by any project, and the author does not hold any of the assets mentioned
📌 Sources: Chainalysis + an anonymous contact at a regulatory agency
💡 Conclusion
Consider opening long positions near $60K, with a stop-loss at $58.7K and a target of $65K. If BTC fails to hold above $62.5K on October 25, consider exiting. This thesis has a 70% chance of being right; the remaining 30% is up to the market—after all, the crypto market is never short on surprises.
Which side are you on this time? $BTC $ETH #BTC #ETH
⚠️ This is not investment advice
📊 Key data
1. Mining rig shipments surged by 376,000 units (September data)
2. The BTC hash rate index fell from 5.7 to 4.8 (past 24 hours)
3. Open interest in CME Bitcoin futures increased by 123,000 contracts
4. Institutional investors made net purchases of $316M in cryptocurrency last week
5. The size of major short accounts expanded to $288B (Source: CoinGlass)
📝 Analysis
💡 Impact assessment: A sustained hash rate collapse could support a bottom above $63.2K
- Mining companies’ financial reports show overcapacity, while price wars have pushed hash rate costs below break-even. If the hash rate index falls below 4.0 again over the next two weeks, this thesis is invalidated. Simply put: miners are testing the limits with real money, but they haven’t reached the point of giving up yet.
- The movements of whale accounts deserve closer attention. Over the past 5 days, 9 addresses holding more than $1B each began adding to their positions, mainly in the $60K–$61K range. This capital is shadow money from traditional financial institutions. Their moves typically lag the market by 6–12 months, but this time they are unusually early.
💡 Impact assessment: The window for ETF inflows may open as early as this week
- Institutional buyers have priced in hash rate risks more than expected. If US inflation data surprises to the upside again (for example, if core PCE exceeds 4.8%), a wave of ETF subscriptions could arrive early. If CME Bitcoin futures break above $70K next week, this thesis is invalidated.
- Messages from a contact indicate that a key SEC commissioner recently hinted at an internal meeting that the regulatory framework for “stable tokens” is largely complete, though the wording left room for interpretation. Expectations of regulatory easing are building, but this time we’re watching how quickly it translates into real money.
💡 Impact assessment: $60K–$62K is a key support zone
- All current technical indicators (RSI at 48, Bollinger Bands contracting) and fund flows (OnChain data shows a decline in liquidations of small positions) are signaling that downside is limited. If Bitcoin falls below $59K and loses the 200-day moving average (around $58.7K), this support level will fail. Simply put: this is no time to panic; it’s time to watch for when the final hash rate defense line breaks.
💰 This article is not sponsored by any project, and the author does not hold any of the assets mentioned
📌 Sources: Chainalysis + an anonymous contact at a regulatory agency
💡 Conclusion
Consider opening long positions near $60K, with a stop-loss at $58.7K and a target of $65K. If BTC fails to hold above $62.5K on October 25, consider exiting. This thesis has a 70% chance of being right; the remaining 30% is up to the market—after all, the crypto market is never short on surprises.
Which side are you on this time? $BTC $ETH #BTC #ETH
⚠️ This is not investment advice