【October 10 | Global Markets News and Data Analysis】
1. Trump: Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz now exceed levels before the outbreak of the Iran war.
2. Nvidia’s revised definition of free cash flow draws attention: the sustainability of its $235 billion buyback plan is in doubt.
3. Bitcoin’s annualized volatility has fallen to 46%, but it has seen more extreme moves this year than during the 2018 bear market.
4. All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher this morning; Oracle gained 4.69% and CRCL rose 4.54%.
U.S. stocks ended higher on Friday, with all three major indexes advancing. The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq each posted gains, reflecting broadly upbeat market sentiment. Major tech stocks turned in a strong performance: Oracle, Amazon, Microsoft, Tesla, and SpaceX all posted solid gains, providing the main impetus for the indexes’ rise. Crypto-related stocks were mixed: MicroStrategy, Coinbase, Circle, and Robinhood rose, while Sbet, BMNR, and PURR edged lower, pointing to uneven momentum across the sector.
Bitcoin has experienced extreme moves several times this year. Although individual swings have been milder than in 2018 and volatility has eased considerably over the course of the year, extreme fluctuations remain relatively frequent. This reflects the continued role of concentrated derivatives leverage and macroeconomic shocks in amplifying price swings. Greater institutional participation, improved liquidity, and more sophisticated risk-management tools have made the market somewhat more resilient to shocks. However, traditional risk models still fall short in capturing tail risks, and extreme moves are unlikely to disappear anytime soon. For the crypto market, the recovery in risk appetite across U.S. equities and the correlation with related stocks could provide Bitcoin with a tailwind in the short term. But rising volatility and the failure of risk models are reminders that traders should not overcommit to a low-volatility environment, and should instead treat sharp market moves as part of the norm.
1. Trump: Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz now exceed levels before the outbreak of the Iran war.
2. Nvidia’s revised definition of free cash flow draws attention: the sustainability of its $235 billion buyback plan is in doubt.
3. Bitcoin’s annualized volatility has fallen to 46%, but it has seen more extreme moves this year than during the 2018 bear market.
4. All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher this morning; Oracle gained 4.69% and CRCL rose 4.54%.
U.S. stocks ended higher on Friday, with all three major indexes advancing. The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq each posted gains, reflecting broadly upbeat market sentiment. Major tech stocks turned in a strong performance: Oracle, Amazon, Microsoft, Tesla, and SpaceX all posted solid gains, providing the main impetus for the indexes’ rise. Crypto-related stocks were mixed: MicroStrategy, Coinbase, Circle, and Robinhood rose, while Sbet, BMNR, and PURR edged lower, pointing to uneven momentum across the sector.
Bitcoin has experienced extreme moves several times this year. Although individual swings have been milder than in 2018 and volatility has eased considerably over the course of the year, extreme fluctuations remain relatively frequent. This reflects the continued role of concentrated derivatives leverage and macroeconomic shocks in amplifying price swings. Greater institutional participation, improved liquidity, and more sophisticated risk-management tools have made the market somewhat more resilient to shocks. However, traditional risk models still fall short in capturing tail risks, and extreme moves are unlikely to disappear anytime soon. For the crypto market, the recovery in risk appetite across U.S. equities and the correlation with related stocks could provide Bitcoin with a tailwind in the short term. But rising volatility and the failure of risk models are reminders that traders should not overcommit to a low-volatility environment, and should instead treat sharp market moves as part of the norm.