Black swans never give you a warning. Survive first, then talk about making money.
A fellow crypto trader messaged me: in this sudden plunge, he’d lost 200,000. There was a long silence on the other end of the screen. Honestly, when a market waterfall hits this hard, no one can prepare a script in advance for getting trapped, hitting a stop-loss, or being liquidated. News came in on-chain: an address linked to funds seized by the U.S. government in the Bitfinex hack case suddenly transferred 12,267.02 BTC—about $1.006 billion—toward exchanges. The market changed in an instant, and the bloodbath began.
In this world, black swans aren’t anomalies; they’re the norm. For those heavily invested, a stop-loss is a seat belt. For those with smaller positions, position management is a moat. Surviving will always matter more than making a quick buck.
I’ve been in this business for over a decade, starting with 50,000 and reaching a little financial freedom today. It wasn’t thanks to uncanny predictions, but to rolling half-sized positions, moving steadily, and prioritizing stability month after month. Here are a few hard-and-fast rules for those who might find them useful: six situations when you shouldn’t buy, and four when you shouldn’t sell.
Six times not to buy:
If the price is still below the 60-day moving average and the downtrend hasn’t stopped, don’t try to catch a falling knife.
If good news only arrives after a huge rally, don’t be the last one holding the bag.
If the price has surged in the short term and is far above the 5-day moving average, don’t chase it; wait for a pullback.
If it gaps up sharply at a high level, don’t get excited—it could be the big players distributing their holdings.
If turnover exceeds 30%, bulls and bears are locked in a fierce battle; stay on the sidelines for now.
If the broader market is weak but the asset is being aggressively pushed up, it’s probably false strength. Don’t trust it too easily.
Four times not to sell:
If the RSI is between 50 and 80, momentum is still there—hold on.
If it gaps up on heavy volume from a low level, don’t rush to take profits; the move may have only just begun.
If the trend is upward and the moving averages are aligned bullishly, hold on and let your profits run.
If the holdings are tightly concentrated around a single price level and the big players haven’t exited, don’t surrender your position too easily.
Following the trend is more reliable than guessing whether prices will rise or fall. May you stay level-headed during a surge and calm during a crash. @鑫鹰说财 $SPCX
A fellow crypto trader messaged me: in this sudden plunge, he’d lost 200,000. There was a long silence on the other end of the screen. Honestly, when a market waterfall hits this hard, no one can prepare a script in advance for getting trapped, hitting a stop-loss, or being liquidated. News came in on-chain: an address linked to funds seized by the U.S. government in the Bitfinex hack case suddenly transferred 12,267.02 BTC—about $1.006 billion—toward exchanges. The market changed in an instant, and the bloodbath began.
In this world, black swans aren’t anomalies; they’re the norm. For those heavily invested, a stop-loss is a seat belt. For those with smaller positions, position management is a moat. Surviving will always matter more than making a quick buck.
I’ve been in this business for over a decade, starting with 50,000 and reaching a little financial freedom today. It wasn’t thanks to uncanny predictions, but to rolling half-sized positions, moving steadily, and prioritizing stability month after month. Here are a few hard-and-fast rules for those who might find them useful: six situations when you shouldn’t buy, and four when you shouldn’t sell.
Six times not to buy:
If the price is still below the 60-day moving average and the downtrend hasn’t stopped, don’t try to catch a falling knife.
If good news only arrives after a huge rally, don’t be the last one holding the bag.
If the price has surged in the short term and is far above the 5-day moving average, don’t chase it; wait for a pullback.
If it gaps up sharply at a high level, don’t get excited—it could be the big players distributing their holdings.
If turnover exceeds 30%, bulls and bears are locked in a fierce battle; stay on the sidelines for now.
If the broader market is weak but the asset is being aggressively pushed up, it’s probably false strength. Don’t trust it too easily.
Four times not to sell:
If the RSI is between 50 and 80, momentum is still there—hold on.
If it gaps up on heavy volume from a low level, don’t rush to take profits; the move may have only just begun.
If the trend is upward and the moving averages are aligned bullishly, hold on and let your profits run.
If the holdings are tightly concentrated around a single price level and the big players haven’t exited, don’t surrender your position too easily.
Following the trend is more reliable than guessing whether prices will rise or fall. May you stay level-headed during a surge and calm during a crash. @鑫鹰说财 $SPCX