$ETH 24 hours barely moved from its starting point (2494 to 2490), but the 4-hour MACD histogram has already flipped from -13.4 to +0.8. Many people would take this as a reversal signal. I see it the other way around: this is just a recovery after the long lower wick at 2406, and there’s still one hurdle to clear before the market can truly turn bullish.
First, look at the levels. The 4-hour EMA200 is at 2598 and the EMA50 at 2601. The two lines are almost on top of each other, sitting about $100 above the current price. The price briefly touched 2577 at its high over the past two days, then turned back down with more than $20 still to go before reaching those lines.
Now, look at the traders. The long/short ratio among retail accounts in futures fell from 0.77 to 0.75, suggesting retail traders are getting out. Meanwhile, the long/short ratio for large traders’ positions rose from 0.63 to 0.64. Open interest barely changed, staying around 2.34 million ETH. In plain terms, retail traders have been capitulating over the past two days while large traders have been taking the other side—but they’re not in a hurry, and no one is willing to use leverage to push the price higher. The funding rate is 0.0014%, close to zero, which also shows that longs aren’t willing to pay a premium.
The RSI14 is at 33.9. It started rebounding before even leaving oversold territory, and rebounds like this are usually limited in strength. The ATR is around 34, so given this level of volatility, the 2577–2598 area is quite likely to be the ceiling for this rebound.
My own approach: I’m neither adding to nor reducing my spot ETH holdings. I won’t treat this as a trend reversal until a 4-hour candle closes above 2598. If the price falls back below 2406, I’ll consider this lower wick a false signal, and expect the price to look for lower levels next.
#ETH #Ethereum
First, look at the levels. The 4-hour EMA200 is at 2598 and the EMA50 at 2601. The two lines are almost on top of each other, sitting about $100 above the current price. The price briefly touched 2577 at its high over the past two days, then turned back down with more than $20 still to go before reaching those lines.
Now, look at the traders. The long/short ratio among retail accounts in futures fell from 0.77 to 0.75, suggesting retail traders are getting out. Meanwhile, the long/short ratio for large traders’ positions rose from 0.63 to 0.64. Open interest barely changed, staying around 2.34 million ETH. In plain terms, retail traders have been capitulating over the past two days while large traders have been taking the other side—but they’re not in a hurry, and no one is willing to use leverage to push the price higher. The funding rate is 0.0014%, close to zero, which also shows that longs aren’t willing to pay a premium.
The RSI14 is at 33.9. It started rebounding before even leaving oversold territory, and rebounds like this are usually limited in strength. The ATR is around 34, so given this level of volatility, the 2577–2598 area is quite likely to be the ceiling for this rebound.
My own approach: I’m neither adding to nor reducing my spot ETH holdings. I won’t treat this as a trend reversal until a 4-hour candle closes above 2598. If the price falls back below 2406, I’ll consider this lower wick a false signal, and expect the price to look for lower levels next.
#ETH #Ethereum