Over the past 20 hours, $BTC has barely moved, trading back and forth around 82,700. But on Binance Futures, the share of retail accounts going long has fallen steadily from 65.3% to 59.1%—a drop of six percentage points.
Over the same period, the share of large traders’ positions that are long was 61.7%, unchanged from 20 hours ago. Total open interest went from 92,900 BTC to 92,500 BTC, essentially flat.
What does this tell us? It’s not that longs were liquidated and flushed out—their positions haven’t decreased. Rather, retail traders are giving up amid the price stagnation, switching their long positions to shorts or closing them, while large traders are taking the other side. When the price holds steady but retail traders leave, I’m more inclined to see it as coins moving into stronger hands.
Technically, the price is tightly squeezed. The 4-hour EMA200 is at 82,369, and the EMA50 is at 83,782, with the price sitting right between them. RSI is 44, weak but not oversold. The Bollinger lower band is at 81,050, the middle band at 82,977, and the current price is just below the middle band. The last six funding rates have all been near zero, with the highest only 0.005%—neither side is paying a premium.
My view is that as long as there’s no 4-hour close below the EMA200 at 82,369, this move is more likely to test 83,782 to the upside first, rather than turn back down and hit the previous low at 80,394. If the retail long-account share keeps falling toward 55% while the price still holds, that would be an even stronger signal.
I’m holding my BTC spot and waiting for a 4-hour close above 83,782 before considering adding a little. If it really closes below 82,369, I’ll admit I was wrong about large traders supporting the price.
#BTC #FuturesOpenInterest
Over the same period, the share of large traders’ positions that are long was 61.7%, unchanged from 20 hours ago. Total open interest went from 92,900 BTC to 92,500 BTC, essentially flat.
What does this tell us? It’s not that longs were liquidated and flushed out—their positions haven’t decreased. Rather, retail traders are giving up amid the price stagnation, switching their long positions to shorts or closing them, while large traders are taking the other side. When the price holds steady but retail traders leave, I’m more inclined to see it as coins moving into stronger hands.
Technically, the price is tightly squeezed. The 4-hour EMA200 is at 82,369, and the EMA50 is at 83,782, with the price sitting right between them. RSI is 44, weak but not oversold. The Bollinger lower band is at 81,050, the middle band at 82,977, and the current price is just below the middle band. The last six funding rates have all been near zero, with the highest only 0.005%—neither side is paying a premium.
My view is that as long as there’s no 4-hour close below the EMA200 at 82,369, this move is more likely to test 83,782 to the upside first, rather than turn back down and hit the previous low at 80,394. If the retail long-account share keeps falling toward 55% while the price still holds, that would be an even stronger signal.
I’m holding my BTC spot and waiting for a 4-hour close above 83,782 before considering adding a little. If it really closes below 82,369, I’ll admit I was wrong about large traders supporting the price.
#BTC #FuturesOpenInterest