$AMD A year ago, it closed at 232.9. On October 6, it hit a high of 649.4, up 179%. But this week, the daily MACD histogram has steadily shrunk from +4.39 on October 2 to -2.16 today, turning negative for the first time.
I’m not focused on how much it’s fallen, but on how quickly momentum has faded. In two trading days, the price pulled back from 645.9 to around 609.7, a drop of just 5.6%, while the RSI fell from 70.7 to 57.7. The price hasn’t fallen much, but the excitement has already cooled. I’ve seen this combination many times near a peak; it usually means price will consolidate over time rather than immediately push on to new highs.
Here’s how I’m looking at a few key levels. The EMA20 is at 597.5, just $12 below the current price, and the daily ATR is 23.6, meaning a normal day’s move could easily reach it. The real support is around 582, the low for the past two weeks. To the upside, the previous high of 649.4 is where my view would be invalidated. A close back above it would show that momentum just needed a breather, and I’d admit I was wrong.
One more thing: today’s intraday volume was only around 7.1 million shares, compared with a 20-day average of 22.4 million. This kind of decline on shrinking volume is more grinding than a high-volume selloff. Investors aren’t rushing for the exits, but no one seems eager to buy here either.
I don’t own AMD, and I’m not planning to touch it for now. In my view, after the MACD turns negative, it will most likely need to move around in the 597–582 range for a while to work off the excess heat. The long-term trend is still intact, but chasing it at these short-term highs no longer offers much upside for the risk.
Personal opinion
#AMD #US stocks
I’m not focused on how much it’s fallen, but on how quickly momentum has faded. In two trading days, the price pulled back from 645.9 to around 609.7, a drop of just 5.6%, while the RSI fell from 70.7 to 57.7. The price hasn’t fallen much, but the excitement has already cooled. I’ve seen this combination many times near a peak; it usually means price will consolidate over time rather than immediately push on to new highs.
Here’s how I’m looking at a few key levels. The EMA20 is at 597.5, just $12 below the current price, and the daily ATR is 23.6, meaning a normal day’s move could easily reach it. The real support is around 582, the low for the past two weeks. To the upside, the previous high of 649.4 is where my view would be invalidated. A close back above it would show that momentum just needed a breather, and I’d admit I was wrong.
One more thing: today’s intraday volume was only around 7.1 million shares, compared with a 20-day average of 22.4 million. This kind of decline on shrinking volume is more grinding than a high-volume selloff. Investors aren’t rushing for the exits, but no one seems eager to buy here either.
I don’t own AMD, and I’m not planning to touch it for now. In my view, after the MACD turns negative, it will most likely need to move around in the 597–582 range for a while to work off the excess heat. The long-term trend is still intact, but chasing it at these short-term highs no longer offers much upside for the risk.
Personal opinion
#AMD #US stocks