$COIN opened up 3.6% today, but from 201 on September 22 to yesterday’s close at 172, it was down 14.5%. Over the same period, $BTC only fell from 84,472 to 81,754, a drop of 3.2%. The coin fell 3%, while the exchange stock fell more than four times as much—that’s a more extreme amplification than usual.
I took a closer look at today’s bullish candle. On the daily chart, the KDJ J value was -9.8 yesterday and turned back up to 4.7 today; the K and D values are 17 and 23. This is the first turn upward from negative territory. Technically, it’s called an oversold bounce, and the signal itself is very common.
The issue is where it’s happening. The current price of 178.2 is right below the EMA50 at 178.8. Above that, the EMA20 is at 183.7, which is also the middle line of the Keltner Channel. In the last few days of September, the stock repeatedly closed around 186, so there’s an existing supply zone from trapped buyers in this area. Below, today’s low is 171.65; further down, the lower Keltner band is at 162.8, almost coinciding with the 20-day low of 161.2.
I understand the logic behind COIN: it makes money from trading volume. When crypto prices move sideways and retail investors stay away, fee revenue shrinks first, so the stock naturally falls more than the coins. During today’s rebound, BTC only recovered to around 82,800, and volume didn’t pick up. I don’t see any change in the fundamentals.
In my view, this bullish candle is just the momentum from the J value bouncing back from negative territory, not a trend reversal. Until the daily close gets back above 186, I see the 183–186 area as resistance. It’s more likely to go back and test 171.65 again. Unless BTC first gets back above 84,500, it’ll be hard for COIN to make an independent move.
Personal opinion for the record
#美股 #COIN
I took a closer look at today’s bullish candle. On the daily chart, the KDJ J value was -9.8 yesterday and turned back up to 4.7 today; the K and D values are 17 and 23. This is the first turn upward from negative territory. Technically, it’s called an oversold bounce, and the signal itself is very common.
The issue is where it’s happening. The current price of 178.2 is right below the EMA50 at 178.8. Above that, the EMA20 is at 183.7, which is also the middle line of the Keltner Channel. In the last few days of September, the stock repeatedly closed around 186, so there’s an existing supply zone from trapped buyers in this area. Below, today’s low is 171.65; further down, the lower Keltner band is at 162.8, almost coinciding with the 20-day low of 161.2.
I understand the logic behind COIN: it makes money from trading volume. When crypto prices move sideways and retail investors stay away, fee revenue shrinks first, so the stock naturally falls more than the coins. During today’s rebound, BTC only recovered to around 82,800, and volume didn’t pick up. I don’t see any change in the fundamentals.
In my view, this bullish candle is just the momentum from the J value bouncing back from negative territory, not a trend reversal. Until the daily close gets back above 186, I see the 183–186 area as resistance. It’s more likely to go back and test 171.65 again. Unless BTC first gets back above 84,500, it’ll be hard for COIN to make an independent move.
Personal opinion for the record
#美股 #COIN