$BTC was down less than 1% in two weeks, while $MARA fell 24%. Same coin, yet mining stocks got hammered this badly.
Let’s compare them: from September 24 to today’s open, BTC’s daily close went from around 83,500 to 82,800—basically flat. MARA, on the other hand, slid from 12.92 all the way to 9.76, with only one up day in 12 trading days. Over the same period, $MSTR went from 161.6 to 154.9, a pullback of just 4%, and at today’s open it was still above the EMA200 (151.9).
MARA’s daily RSI comes in at just 8.7—a reading I rarely see. The price is already hugging the lower Bollinger Band at 9.50, while the EMA50 is at 11.47 and the EMA200 at 12.26, both far above. Looking lower, the 60-day low at 9.0 is the next support level; a break below that would put it in uncharted territory.
The logic, as I see it, is simple: miners make money on the spread between the coin price and their costs. When the coin price isn’t rising, that spread is the first thing to get squeezed, so capital moves out of mining stocks and into more direct plays. MSTR can weather it because it’s only betting on the coin price itself; with mining stocks, you’re also betting on profit margins.
A single-digit RSI usually means selling pressure is close to exhaustion, but exhaustion doesn’t mean a reversal. My approach is to first see whether it can close above 10.36 (the October 7 close) for two days in a row. If it can’t reclaim that level, I’d rather miss the first bounce than chase a decline like this. Until BTC gets back above 84,500, I don’t think mining stocks have much of an independent rally in them.
Personal opinion
#美股 #Bitcoin miners
Let’s compare them: from September 24 to today’s open, BTC’s daily close went from around 83,500 to 82,800—basically flat. MARA, on the other hand, slid from 12.92 all the way to 9.76, with only one up day in 12 trading days. Over the same period, $MSTR went from 161.6 to 154.9, a pullback of just 4%, and at today’s open it was still above the EMA200 (151.9).
MARA’s daily RSI comes in at just 8.7—a reading I rarely see. The price is already hugging the lower Bollinger Band at 9.50, while the EMA50 is at 11.47 and the EMA200 at 12.26, both far above. Looking lower, the 60-day low at 9.0 is the next support level; a break below that would put it in uncharted territory.
The logic, as I see it, is simple: miners make money on the spread between the coin price and their costs. When the coin price isn’t rising, that spread is the first thing to get squeezed, so capital moves out of mining stocks and into more direct plays. MSTR can weather it because it’s only betting on the coin price itself; with mining stocks, you’re also betting on profit margins.
A single-digit RSI usually means selling pressure is close to exhaustion, but exhaustion doesn’t mean a reversal. My approach is to first see whether it can close above 10.36 (the October 7 close) for two days in a row. If it can’t reclaim that level, I’d rather miss the first bounce than chase a decline like this. Until BTC gets back above 84,500, I don’t think mining stocks have much of an independent rally in them.
Personal opinion
#美股 #Bitcoin miners