$BTC bounced from 80394 to 82434, up $2,000, yet futures open interest hasn’t added a single coin.
Binance BTC futures open interest was still at 96,400 contracts yesterday afternoon. At 16:00 today, it was 92,900, and during this rebound it has basically stayed between 92,900 and 93,000. Price is up, but open interest is flat. That suggests this move wasn’t driven by new longs coming in, nor was it a short squeeze. It looks more like spot buying propped the price back up while futures traders stayed on the sidelines.
Now look at the account positioning. The proportion of accounts holding long positions is 63.9%, and the top traders’ long/short position ratio is 1.59—barely changed from the past two days. The longs haven’t been shaken out, but no new players have added to their positions either, leaving the market stuck in an awkward spot.
Technically, the 4-hour price has just moved above the EMA200 (82088), but it’s still $1,500 short of the EMA50 at 83948. The MACD histogram has narrowed from -229 to -87: bearish momentum is fading, but it hasn’t turned positive yet. The lower Bollinger Band is at 80630, and the previous wick pierced below it.
Looking back at my earlier post: I said the bounce from 82300 wasn’t enough to call a trend recovery, and I wanted to see whether 80394 would get tested again. That test hasn’t happened yet; instead, the price has moved a little higher. So far, my call hasn’t played out, and I’ll own that.
My view hasn’t changed: without open interest backing it up, the rebound’s ceiling is around the EMA50. I’ll only acknowledge a new move if price breaks above 83948 on strong volume and open interest climbs back above 95,000 contracts. Until then, I won’t add to my spot holdings, and I’ll stay out of futures. A move back below 82088 would be a signal that the previous low is being retested.
#BTC #FuturesOpenInterest
Binance BTC futures open interest was still at 96,400 contracts yesterday afternoon. At 16:00 today, it was 92,900, and during this rebound it has basically stayed between 92,900 and 93,000. Price is up, but open interest is flat. That suggests this move wasn’t driven by new longs coming in, nor was it a short squeeze. It looks more like spot buying propped the price back up while futures traders stayed on the sidelines.
Now look at the account positioning. The proportion of accounts holding long positions is 63.9%, and the top traders’ long/short position ratio is 1.59—barely changed from the past two days. The longs haven’t been shaken out, but no new players have added to their positions either, leaving the market stuck in an awkward spot.
Technically, the 4-hour price has just moved above the EMA200 (82088), but it’s still $1,500 short of the EMA50 at 83948. The MACD histogram has narrowed from -229 to -87: bearish momentum is fading, but it hasn’t turned positive yet. The lower Bollinger Band is at 80630, and the previous wick pierced below it.
Looking back at my earlier post: I said the bounce from 82300 wasn’t enough to call a trend recovery, and I wanted to see whether 80394 would get tested again. That test hasn’t happened yet; instead, the price has moved a little higher. So far, my call hasn’t played out, and I’ll own that.
My view hasn’t changed: without open interest backing it up, the rebound’s ceiling is around the EMA50. I’ll only acknowledge a new move if price breaks above 83948 on strong volume and open interest climbs back above 95,000 contracts. Until then, I won’t add to my spot holdings, and I’ll stay out of futures. A move back below 82088 would be a signal that the previous low is being retested.
#BTC #FuturesOpenInterest