$SUI fell 5.8% today, but not a single retail trader has left: the share of accounts going long has barely budged, slipping from last night's peak of 69.2% to just 68.0%. It's the big players who are really getting out.
A few sets of Binance futures data tell the story:
The large-trader long/short position ratio was still 2.32 at midnight on 10/9, but had fallen to just 1.80 by 17:00—a cut of more than 20% in long positions in a single day.
Open interest dropped from 133 million tokens to 122 million, then gradually climbed back to 125 million in the afternoon. After the drop, some traders are actually adding to their positions.
Funding rates were positive in 6 of the last 8 periods, and the latest was close to zero. Shorts aren't crowded.
The mechanics are simple: big money hands its long positions over to retail traders near the highs. When the price falls, retail doesn't stop out, and the new positions being opened are most likely longs trying to buy the dip. When these traders can no longer hold on, they'll fuel the next leg down.
Technically, the 4-hour RSI is 37.8, not yet oversold. The price at 1.069 is below the Bollinger midline at 1.12. The lower band at 1.015 lines up almost exactly with the 4-hour EMA200 at 1.013; below that is this cycle's low of 0.998. The 1.00 psychological level is the bulls' last line of defense, with resistance above at the EMA50, currently at 1.136.
I don't hold any SUI myself, and I don't plan to buy this dip. In my view, before the big players return, a bounce toward 1.12 looks more like an opportunity for retail traders to break even. Sooner or later, 1.00 will be tested again.
#SUI #FuturesData
A few sets of Binance futures data tell the story:
The large-trader long/short position ratio was still 2.32 at midnight on 10/9, but had fallen to just 1.80 by 17:00—a cut of more than 20% in long positions in a single day.
Open interest dropped from 133 million tokens to 122 million, then gradually climbed back to 125 million in the afternoon. After the drop, some traders are actually adding to their positions.
Funding rates were positive in 6 of the last 8 periods, and the latest was close to zero. Shorts aren't crowded.
The mechanics are simple: big money hands its long positions over to retail traders near the highs. When the price falls, retail doesn't stop out, and the new positions being opened are most likely longs trying to buy the dip. When these traders can no longer hold on, they'll fuel the next leg down.
Technically, the 4-hour RSI is 37.8, not yet oversold. The price at 1.069 is below the Bollinger midline at 1.12. The lower band at 1.015 lines up almost exactly with the 4-hour EMA200 at 1.013; below that is this cycle's low of 0.998. The 1.00 psychological level is the bulls' last line of defense, with resistance above at the EMA50, currently at 1.136.
I don't hold any SUI myself, and I don't plan to buy this dip. In my view, before the big players return, a bounce toward 1.12 looks more like an opportunity for retail traders to break even. Sooner or later, 1.00 will be tested again.
#SUI #FuturesData