As the anniversary of last October’s epic crypto market crash approaches, $BTC has fallen back to around $80,000. Leverage may look similar to last year’s, but the underlying structure is vastly different.
BTC fell 4% on Thursday, retreating more than 8% from its $87,000 high; ETH/XRP/SOL fell 6–9%, with 24-hour liquidations topping $1 billion.
Last year, the tariff black swan on October 10 sent BTC plunging from $122,000, triggering $19 billion in liquidations in a single day.
Open interest is expanding now, but funding rates aren’t overheated. Coinbase institutional data shows BTC leverage has declined for four consecutive months, reaching its lowest level since August 2024.
Last year’s crash required three factors to converge: high leverage, a liquidity crunch, and a sudden shock.
BTC leverage has cooled and liquidity has improved, with no tariff-style black swan in sight; however, oil at $100 a barrel and 5.3% Treasury yields are still creating macro pressure.
The risk lies in altcoins: at the end of September, altcoin open interest as a share of the total broke above 1.0 for the first time since February. Altcoin leverage is crowded, which could amplify volatility.
#比特币跌破8.1万美元
BTC fell 4% on Thursday, retreating more than 8% from its $87,000 high; ETH/XRP/SOL fell 6–9%, with 24-hour liquidations topping $1 billion.
Last year, the tariff black swan on October 10 sent BTC plunging from $122,000, triggering $19 billion in liquidations in a single day.
Open interest is expanding now, but funding rates aren’t overheated. Coinbase institutional data shows BTC leverage has declined for four consecutive months, reaching its lowest level since August 2024.
Last year’s crash required three factors to converge: high leverage, a liquidity crunch, and a sudden shock.
BTC leverage has cooled and liquidity has improved, with no tariff-style black swan in sight; however, oil at $100 a barrel and 5.3% Treasury yields are still creating macro pressure.
The risk lies in altcoins: at the end of September, altcoin open interest as a share of the total broke above 1.0 for the first time since February. Altcoin leverage is crowded, which could amplify volatility.
#比特币跌破8.1万美元