Dalio’s warning sent me off calculating something else when I casually opened this up this afternoon: the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries hit 5.36% at one point this week, its highest level since 2002. That’s what he said in an interview with CNBC on Thursday at the Milken Institute Asia Summit in Singapore. U.S. stocks have weathered this round of bond selling thanks to a cushion provided by corporate earnings, but that cushion is getting thinner. Yields rose nearly 90 basis points over the third quarter—the biggest quarterly increase this century. He also said we need to watch free cash flow now, not just reported earnings.
I calculated something else: $STRK is up 45.49% today. Divide that by 5.36%, and you get 8.49 times. In a single day, it’s delivering the equivalent of ten years’ worth of interest on U.S. Treasuries. I ran the numbers twice. When something gives you ten years’ worth in one day, it’ll probably give it all back the next. I chased it at a high last month, and it gave the gains back the very next day. This time, I stayed put.
What do you think—would you chase an 8.5x move, or do what I did and run after doing the math?
#数据视角 #CryptoTruth
I calculated something else: $STRK is up 45.49% today. Divide that by 5.36%, and you get 8.49 times. In a single day, it’s delivering the equivalent of ten years’ worth of interest on U.S. Treasuries. I ran the numbers twice. When something gives you ten years’ worth in one day, it’ll probably give it all back the next. I chased it at a high last month, and it gave the gains back the very next day. This time, I stayed put.
What do you think—would you chase an 8.5x move, or do what I did and run after doing the math?
#数据视角 #CryptoTruth