$RLC rose 49% in a day, but Binance futures open interest only increased from 17.92 million coins to 19.86 million, up just 11%. The price doubled, but not much new money followed.
Looking at who is in the market: short accounts still made up 52.8%, and the funding rate was negative eight times in a row from 2 a.m. to noon, with the lowest at -0.0139%. Futures trading volume was 560 million U, while spot was only 41 million U, a gap of nearly 14 times.
From these numbers, this round looks more like shorts being squeezed out layer by layer: every time the price pushes up a bit, loss-making short positions are forced to buy back at market to close, and buying pressure is thus "created." But the fuel for a short squeeze is limited; once a batch of shorts is closed, there are fewer left, and if open interest does not keep piling up, there will be no follow-through later.
The 4-hour candle at noon today has already shown the weakness: it surged to a high of 1.488, closed at 1.146, and gave back 23% in a few hours. The 4H Keltner upper band is at 1.024, and the price is still hanging outside the upper band; the daily ATR is 0.16, so a one- or two-cent daily swing is normal.
This coin already played out a similar move three days ago: on October 6 it hit 1.077, and the next day it fell to 0.658, a 39% pullback in two days. There is only one sample, so it does not mean it must repeat, but the pattern looks very similar.
I personally am not going long, and I am not shorting either. In a short squeeze, shorting is just providing fuel to others. My view is that if 1.024 cannot hold, it will most likely return to around 0.85 to look for support; if the 4-hour candle can close above 1.30 and open interest simultaneously rises above 22 million coins, that would mean real new longs are entering, and this view of mine would be invalid.
Recording personal opinion.
#RLC #futures open interest
Looking at who is in the market: short accounts still made up 52.8%, and the funding rate was negative eight times in a row from 2 a.m. to noon, with the lowest at -0.0139%. Futures trading volume was 560 million U, while spot was only 41 million U, a gap of nearly 14 times.
From these numbers, this round looks more like shorts being squeezed out layer by layer: every time the price pushes up a bit, loss-making short positions are forced to buy back at market to close, and buying pressure is thus "created." But the fuel for a short squeeze is limited; once a batch of shorts is closed, there are fewer left, and if open interest does not keep piling up, there will be no follow-through later.
The 4-hour candle at noon today has already shown the weakness: it surged to a high of 1.488, closed at 1.146, and gave back 23% in a few hours. The 4H Keltner upper band is at 1.024, and the price is still hanging outside the upper band; the daily ATR is 0.16, so a one- or two-cent daily swing is normal.
This coin already played out a similar move three days ago: on October 6 it hit 1.077, and the next day it fell to 0.658, a 39% pullback in two days. There is only one sample, so it does not mean it must repeat, but the pattern looks very similar.
I personally am not going long, and I am not shorting either. In a short squeeze, shorting is just providing fuel to others. My view is that if 1.024 cannot hold, it will most likely return to around 0.85 to look for support; if the 4-hour candle can close above 1.30 and open interest simultaneously rises above 22 million coins, that would mean real new longs are entering, and this view of mine would be invalid.
Recording personal opinion.
#RLC #futures open interest