ETH is back above 2,500, but I’m not sure I trust this level
ETH climbed back above 2,500 today, and plenty of people are starting to call a reversal. Let me pour a little cold water on that.
First, some background: ETH fell nearly 10% this week. It was pushed back down from the 2,680–2,770 area, with a low of 2,409. In this wave of 100 billion in liquidations, ETH alone accounted for $310 million—more than BTC.
But here’s the interesting part.
Open interest in ETH futures across the market fell 5.18% over the past 24 hours, and now stands at around $32.1 billion. Leverage is voluntarily exiting the market. That’s actually healthy: the bubble is deflating.
At the same time, a smart-money address with a strong historical win rate and $9.26 million in cumulative profits opened a 20x long position of 12,000 ETH at 2,438. It’s now sitting on unrealized gains of over $600,000. Someone willing to go 20x at this level must be seeing something.
But the order book doesn’t exactly support an immediate takeoff. On Binance, ETH perpetuals have $57.24 million in nearby sell orders—$8.18 million more than the buy orders. The selling pressure overhead is real.
My take: 2,360–2,420 is the line that keeps this move alive. Smart money’s entry is around there too. As long as that level holds, there’s room for a short-term bounce. The first target is still 2,680.
But if ETH breaks below 2,360 on heavy volume, don’t try to outlast smart money. They can afford to hold a 20x position; you might not be able to.
ETH doesn’t lack a story right now. What it lacks is a reason for money to come back. Be patient.
ETH climbed back above 2,500 today, and plenty of people are starting to call a reversal. Let me pour a little cold water on that.
First, some background: ETH fell nearly 10% this week. It was pushed back down from the 2,680–2,770 area, with a low of 2,409. In this wave of 100 billion in liquidations, ETH alone accounted for $310 million—more than BTC.
But here’s the interesting part.
Open interest in ETH futures across the market fell 5.18% over the past 24 hours, and now stands at around $32.1 billion. Leverage is voluntarily exiting the market. That’s actually healthy: the bubble is deflating.
At the same time, a smart-money address with a strong historical win rate and $9.26 million in cumulative profits opened a 20x long position of 12,000 ETH at 2,438. It’s now sitting on unrealized gains of over $600,000. Someone willing to go 20x at this level must be seeing something.
But the order book doesn’t exactly support an immediate takeoff. On Binance, ETH perpetuals have $57.24 million in nearby sell orders—$8.18 million more than the buy orders. The selling pressure overhead is real.
My take: 2,360–2,420 is the line that keeps this move alive. Smart money’s entry is around there too. As long as that level holds, there’s room for a short-term bounce. The first target is still 2,680.
But if ETH breaks below 2,360 on heavy volume, don’t try to outlast smart money. They can afford to hold a 20x position; you might not be able to.
ETH doesn’t lack a story right now. What it lacks is a reason for money to come back. Be patient.