$ETH fell from 2538 yesterday before dawn to 2406, dropping another 5% in just over a day, but the share of accounts going long on Binance Futures only slipped from 77.6% to 75.8%.
After such a big drop, retail traders have barely left.
Futures open interest over the same period fell from 2.455 million ETH to 2.341 million ETH, a decrease of around 110,000 ETH. Those who exited look more like short sellers taking profit and closing positions. The top-trader long/short ratio actually rose from 1.57 to 1.66, with longs not trimming their positions at all. The funding rate has been negative in 4 of the last 6 readings, with the latest at -0.0014%, so shorts aren't being forced to pay either.
The takeaway is simple: the same group of people is still buying the dip. A true bottom often comes when long accounts get stopped out and the funding rate turns deeply negative—not when longs keep stubbornly holding on as the price falls.
Technically, the 4-hour RSI is at 32, not yet oversold. At 2500, the price is below both the EMA200 (2599) and EMA50 (2626), with both moving averages now acting as overhead resistance. The lower Bollinger Band is at 2414, almost coinciding with the low of 2406. This area is the first line of support.
Looking back at my post yesterday at noon: I said that unless the 77% of long positions got flushed out, the price wouldn't get back above 2600. After that, it briefly touched 2620 but couldn't hold, then fell to a low of 2406. I got this one right.
I haven't touched my ETH spot holdings, and I'm not opening any new futures positions. If 2406 gets broken by a high-volume bearish candle and the share of longs drops below 70%, that's when I'd be willing to start buying in gradually. Until then, I see any bounce around 2500 as shorts closing their positions.
#ETH #FuturesData
Personal views only
After such a big drop, retail traders have barely left.
Futures open interest over the same period fell from 2.455 million ETH to 2.341 million ETH, a decrease of around 110,000 ETH. Those who exited look more like short sellers taking profit and closing positions. The top-trader long/short ratio actually rose from 1.57 to 1.66, with longs not trimming their positions at all. The funding rate has been negative in 4 of the last 6 readings, with the latest at -0.0014%, so shorts aren't being forced to pay either.
The takeaway is simple: the same group of people is still buying the dip. A true bottom often comes when long accounts get stopped out and the funding rate turns deeply negative—not when longs keep stubbornly holding on as the price falls.
Technically, the 4-hour RSI is at 32, not yet oversold. At 2500, the price is below both the EMA200 (2599) and EMA50 (2626), with both moving averages now acting as overhead resistance. The lower Bollinger Band is at 2414, almost coinciding with the low of 2406. This area is the first line of support.
Looking back at my post yesterday at noon: I said that unless the 77% of long positions got flushed out, the price wouldn't get back above 2600. After that, it briefly touched 2620 but couldn't hold, then fell to a low of 2406. I got this one right.
I haven't touched my ETH spot holdings, and I'm not opening any new futures positions. If 2406 gets broken by a high-volume bearish candle and the share of longs drops below 70%, that's when I'd be willing to start buying in gradually. Until then, I see any bounce around 2500 as shorts closing their positions.
#ETH #FuturesData
Personal views only