NEAR bounced from 4.30 to 4.81, up 12%, but open interest only recovered by 1.28 million tokens. I think this move is shorts getting out, not longs coming back.
First, I’ll admit I was wrong. Yesterday at 13:38, I wrote that NEAR was hitting the 5.50–5.58 range ceiling for the third time, and said there were more stop-losses from shorts above it than sell orders from longs. But at 15:00, it spiked to 5.595 and then turned lower. Overnight, it bottomed at 4.301—a 23% drop from the range ceiling, even steeper than the 17% and 18% declines after the previous two tests. My call was wrong this time.
Now I’m looking at who was active during that drop and bounce.
At 15:00 yesterday, open interest stood at 58.71 million tokens. By 8:00 this morning, it was down to 51.48 million—a drop of 7.23 million, with 12% of positions wiped out. Over the same period, the share of retail accounts going long climbed steadily from 54.5% to 62.1%, while the large-trader long/short ratio fell from 2.61 to 2.31. Funding rates turned negative in both settlements on 10/9: -0.0043% and -0.0052%.
In plain English: large traders were closing longs as the price fell, while retail traders were buying the dip. Shorts took profits and started closing positions, and that buying pushed the price back to 4.8.
The 4-hour MACD histogram is at -0.063, and the bearish crossover below the zero line has yet to converge. Overhead, 4.95–4.96 is where two resistance lines overlap: the 4-hour Keltner midline at 4.956 and the EMA50 at 4.951. It’s also right around last night’s 5.0 consolidation area before the breakdown. Below, 4.45–4.50 marks the lows of two retests this morning, with the 4.30 wick low further down.
I’m flat, so I’m not chasing this bounce. If the 4-hour candle can’t close above 4.96, I’m assuming it will go back to test 4.45. If it gets above that level and open interest builds back above 55 million, then I’ll concede that shorts really are getting squeezed.
Personal opinion
$NEAR #NEAR #Altcoins
First, I’ll admit I was wrong. Yesterday at 13:38, I wrote that NEAR was hitting the 5.50–5.58 range ceiling for the third time, and said there were more stop-losses from shorts above it than sell orders from longs. But at 15:00, it spiked to 5.595 and then turned lower. Overnight, it bottomed at 4.301—a 23% drop from the range ceiling, even steeper than the 17% and 18% declines after the previous two tests. My call was wrong this time.
Now I’m looking at who was active during that drop and bounce.
At 15:00 yesterday, open interest stood at 58.71 million tokens. By 8:00 this morning, it was down to 51.48 million—a drop of 7.23 million, with 12% of positions wiped out. Over the same period, the share of retail accounts going long climbed steadily from 54.5% to 62.1%, while the large-trader long/short ratio fell from 2.61 to 2.31. Funding rates turned negative in both settlements on 10/9: -0.0043% and -0.0052%.
In plain English: large traders were closing longs as the price fell, while retail traders were buying the dip. Shorts took profits and started closing positions, and that buying pushed the price back to 4.8.
The 4-hour MACD histogram is at -0.063, and the bearish crossover below the zero line has yet to converge. Overhead, 4.95–4.96 is where two resistance lines overlap: the 4-hour Keltner midline at 4.956 and the EMA50 at 4.951. It’s also right around last night’s 5.0 consolidation area before the breakdown. Below, 4.45–4.50 marks the lows of two retests this morning, with the 4.30 wick low further down.
I’m flat, so I’m not chasing this bounce. If the 4-hour candle can’t close above 4.96, I’m assuming it will go back to test 4.45. If it gets above that level and open interest builds back above 55 million, then I’ll concede that shorts really are getting squeezed.
Personal opinion
$NEAR #NEAR #Altcoins