TD Cowen raises its Bitcoin price forecasts, keeps Strategy’s year-end target unchanged
Oct. 8 — Investment bank TD Cowen released a new research report raising its Bitcoin price forecasts, setting a year-end 2026 target of $109,000 and a 2029 target of $280,000.
Notably, the report did not raise its price target for Strategy (MSTR), the company with a large Bitcoin position, which remains at $260.
Analysts pointed to equity dilution as the key reason for the divergence. Not all of the funds raised by Strategy are used to buy Bitcoin: some are used to repurchase its STRC, STRF and STRD preferred shares, while another portion is allocated to cash reserves.
These moves help stabilize the capital structure and preserve funds for future BTC purchases. However, preferred shares have priority claims on assets and continually dilute the Bitcoin exposure per common share, reducing common shareholders’ share of the gains.
Despite the dilution pressure, the fundamentals are showing some bright spots. Strategy’s valuation has recovered from 0.63 times net asset value at its June low to around 1 times, while its 848,000 Bitcoin holdings have generated approximately $5.9 billion in unrealized gains.
In the secondary market, MSTR shares are currently trading at around $151, down more than 52% year to date. However, the stock has moved up from the lows below $100 seen around midyear.
TD Cowen nonetheless maintains its Buy rating on Strategy. Its $260 price target implies approximately 72% upside, but common shareholders will continue to face the pressure of equity dilution before they can realize the benefits of rising Bitcoin prices.
#比特币价格预期
Oct. 8 — Investment bank TD Cowen released a new research report raising its Bitcoin price forecasts, setting a year-end 2026 target of $109,000 and a 2029 target of $280,000.
Notably, the report did not raise its price target for Strategy (MSTR), the company with a large Bitcoin position, which remains at $260.
Analysts pointed to equity dilution as the key reason for the divergence. Not all of the funds raised by Strategy are used to buy Bitcoin: some are used to repurchase its STRC, STRF and STRD preferred shares, while another portion is allocated to cash reserves.
These moves help stabilize the capital structure and preserve funds for future BTC purchases. However, preferred shares have priority claims on assets and continually dilute the Bitcoin exposure per common share, reducing common shareholders’ share of the gains.
Despite the dilution pressure, the fundamentals are showing some bright spots. Strategy’s valuation has recovered from 0.63 times net asset value at its June low to around 1 times, while its 848,000 Bitcoin holdings have generated approximately $5.9 billion in unrealized gains.
In the secondary market, MSTR shares are currently trading at around $151, down more than 52% year to date. However, the stock has moved up from the lows below $100 seen around midyear.
TD Cowen nonetheless maintains its Buy rating on Strategy. Its $260 price target implies approximately 72% upside, but common shareholders will continue to face the pressure of equity dilution before they can realize the benefits of rising Bitcoin prices.
#比特币价格预期