As early as March 1, 2026, I said that the major uptrend in #黄金 had come to an end, and that a monthly-level correction would follow. I also shared the projected move shown in Chart 1. After that, $XAU fell from 5419 to 3942 as expected;
On July 30, 2026, I stated clearly that the first wave of the weekly-level decline had ended, and that a weekly rebound was about to begin. Gold subsequently rose from 3942 to 4697.
What’s the outlook now? Could the move from 3942 to 4697 be just one part of the rebound, with another leg still to come?
In last Sunday’s video, we said that if another rebound of the same degree as the move from 3942 to 4697 were still to come, then the move from 4697 would be a correction. If it is a correction, it shouldn’t fall below the 4015–4030 range. This week, we saw gold find support at 4066, above 4030, and make a V-shaped reversal—a positive sign.
The next level to watch above is 4228. A break above it would suggest that the correction may have ended at 4066. The 0.382 Fibonacci level of the 4697–4066 move is 4308. A break above and a sustained move above 4308 would confirm that the correction has ended. Under this scenario, the rise from 4066 would be of the same degree as the move from 3942 to 4697—a daily-level move.
On the higher time frame, gold is still in a correction, and this correction is at the monthly level. I continue to follow gold not only to look for swing-trading opportunities, but also, more importantly, to stay attuned to changes in its price action. This helps improve trading skills.
On July 30, 2026, I stated clearly that the first wave of the weekly-level decline had ended, and that a weekly rebound was about to begin. Gold subsequently rose from 3942 to 4697.
What’s the outlook now? Could the move from 3942 to 4697 be just one part of the rebound, with another leg still to come?
In last Sunday’s video, we said that if another rebound of the same degree as the move from 3942 to 4697 were still to come, then the move from 4697 would be a correction. If it is a correction, it shouldn’t fall below the 4015–4030 range. This week, we saw gold find support at 4066, above 4030, and make a V-shaped reversal—a positive sign.
The next level to watch above is 4228. A break above it would suggest that the correction may have ended at 4066. The 0.382 Fibonacci level of the 4697–4066 move is 4308. A break above and a sustained move above 4308 would confirm that the correction has ended. Under this scenario, the rise from 4066 would be of the same degree as the move from 3942 to 4697—a daily-level move.
On the higher time frame, gold is still in a correction, and this correction is at the monthly level. I continue to follow gold not only to look for swing-trading opportunities, but also, more importantly, to stay attuned to changes in its price action. This helps improve trading skills.