$STRK climbed from 0.0555 to 0.0689 this morning. Contract open interest piled up from 274 million coins to 358 million in just one morning, an increase of 83 million. Yet the large-trader long/short position ratio was cut from 2.03 to 1.52—as the price pushes to new highs, the new positions coming in are more often shorts.
Over the past 24 hours, Binance recorded 286 million U in contract trading volume, while spot volume was only 42 million U—nearly a sevenfold difference. It was the contract market, not spot buying, that drove the second wave. The share of retail accounts going long also fell from last night's peak of 62.7% to 57.5%; the number of traders isn't rising along with the price. The 4-hour RSI is at 74, and the current price is already above the daily Bollinger upper band at 0.0622.
The same setup just played out last week: from October 3 to 5, open interest piled up from 260 million to 430 million, while the large-trader long/short ratio was cut from 2.1 to 1.2. The price then retraced from 0.0609 to 0.048, a drop of about 20%. The mechanism is straightforward: a higher share of new short positions builds up at elevated prices, providing fuel for a short squeeze if the price rises further. But once it stalls at the outer Bollinger band, the pressure from these positions unwinding is greater than you might expect.
At 0.068, right by the upper band, I'm not chasing the breakout. If open interest keeps piling up toward 400 million, I'd rather first see it unwind a bit. If the price can return to the 0.061–0.0625 range and hold above the previous highs, while open interest drops below 300 million coins, then I'll consider whether to make a move.
#STRK #合约数据 #CryptoMarket
Over the past 24 hours, Binance recorded 286 million U in contract trading volume, while spot volume was only 42 million U—nearly a sevenfold difference. It was the contract market, not spot buying, that drove the second wave. The share of retail accounts going long also fell from last night's peak of 62.7% to 57.5%; the number of traders isn't rising along with the price. The 4-hour RSI is at 74, and the current price is already above the daily Bollinger upper band at 0.0622.
The same setup just played out last week: from October 3 to 5, open interest piled up from 260 million to 430 million, while the large-trader long/short ratio was cut from 2.1 to 1.2. The price then retraced from 0.0609 to 0.048, a drop of about 20%. The mechanism is straightforward: a higher share of new short positions builds up at elevated prices, providing fuel for a short squeeze if the price rises further. But once it stalls at the outer Bollinger band, the pressure from these positions unwinding is greater than you might expect.
At 0.068, right by the upper band, I'm not chasing the breakout. If open interest keeps piling up toward 400 million, I'd rather first see it unwind a bit. If the price can return to the 0.061–0.0625 range and hold above the previous highs, while open interest drops below 300 million coins, then I'll consider whether to make a move.
#STRK #合约数据 #CryptoMarket