83.7%.
That's the market's probability the Fed has hiked up to 50bps by December 9 — while the October 28 meeting is priced at just 17.7%.
Read the CME FedWatch screen like a trader, not a tourist.
FedWatch isn't a forecast. It's Fed funds futures prices converted into odds — real money, real positioning.
4 rules to read it right:
Cumulative ≠ per-meeting. December's 83.7% counts every meeting until then. October's 17.7% is one night only.
17.7% ≠ zero. It's ~1 in 6. Tails move markets when they land.
Watch the change, not the level. Waller said "additional hikes" — Goldman now expects December. That's how 17.7% becomes 30%.
0% chance of any cut through January. The floor only goes up.
FOMC October 28 is 19 days out. $BTC sits at ~80.4K. Hike odds break above 30% → 80K becomes the line. Odds collapse toward 10% → that's the repricing bulls want.
Don't watch the price. Watch the odds move. Trade the move.
---
83.7%.
That's the market's probability that the Fed will have raised rates by up to 50bps by December 9 — while the October 28 meeting is priced at just 17.7%.
Read the CME FedWatch screen like a trader, not a tourist.
FedWatch isn't a forecast. It's Fed funds futures prices converted into odds — real money, real positioning.
4 rules to read it right:
Cumulative ≠ per-meeting. December's 83.7% counts every meeting through December. October's 17.7% is for one night only.
17.7% ≠ zero. That's ~1 in 6. Tails move markets when they hit.
Watch the change, not the level. Waller said "additional hikes" — Goldman now expects a December hike. That's how 17.7% becomes 30%.
0% chance of any cuts through January. The floor only goes up.
The October 28 FOMC meeting is 19 days away. BTC is at ~80.4K. If hike odds break above 30% → 80K becomes the line. If odds collapse toward 10% → that's the repricing bulls want.
Don't just watch the price. Watch the odds move. Trade the move.
#Fed #Bitcoin #CryptoEducation
That's the market's probability the Fed has hiked up to 50bps by December 9 — while the October 28 meeting is priced at just 17.7%.
Read the CME FedWatch screen like a trader, not a tourist.
FedWatch isn't a forecast. It's Fed funds futures prices converted into odds — real money, real positioning.
4 rules to read it right:
Cumulative ≠ per-meeting. December's 83.7% counts every meeting until then. October's 17.7% is one night only.
17.7% ≠ zero. It's ~1 in 6. Tails move markets when they land.
Watch the change, not the level. Waller said "additional hikes" — Goldman now expects December. That's how 17.7% becomes 30%.
0% chance of any cut through January. The floor only goes up.
FOMC October 28 is 19 days out. $BTC sits at ~80.4K. Hike odds break above 30% → 80K becomes the line. Odds collapse toward 10% → that's the repricing bulls want.
Don't watch the price. Watch the odds move. Trade the move.
---
83.7%.
That's the market's probability that the Fed will have raised rates by up to 50bps by December 9 — while the October 28 meeting is priced at just 17.7%.
Read the CME FedWatch screen like a trader, not a tourist.
FedWatch isn't a forecast. It's Fed funds futures prices converted into odds — real money, real positioning.
4 rules to read it right:
Cumulative ≠ per-meeting. December's 83.7% counts every meeting through December. October's 17.7% is for one night only.
17.7% ≠ zero. That's ~1 in 6. Tails move markets when they hit.
Watch the change, not the level. Waller said "additional hikes" — Goldman now expects a December hike. That's how 17.7% becomes 30%.
0% chance of any cuts through January. The floor only goes up.
The October 28 FOMC meeting is 19 days away. BTC is at ~80.4K. If hike odds break above 30% → 80K becomes the line. If odds collapse toward 10% → that's the repricing bulls want.
Don't just watch the price. Watch the odds move. Trade the move.
#Fed #Bitcoin #CryptoEducation