Russell 2000 $IWM returns to the 200-day moving average ☕️
After falling again to the 200-day moving average, down about 9% from the August high, the daily chart is back in contact with the still-rising 200-day moving average. This is the fourth retest in the current uptrend.
The setups at the circled points in the first three instances look very similar:
After the first retest in summer 2025, it continued higher. After the second retest at the end of 2025, it rallied. After the third retest in March–April 2026, it surged to 304–305 in August.
The moving average itself is still rising, and the trend remains intact.
Here’s one way to look at the levels:
If it holds 274–277 (the 200-day moving average + the October 8 low), the “retest and resume the uptrend” scenario seen in the first three instances remains in play.
A clear daily close below 274 would put the spring consolidation zone around 260 in focus, followed by the area near the April swing low around 240. To the upside, first watch 282–284, then 290–292.
It’s still up about 13% year to date, and its valuation discount relative to the broader market remains. But this time around, the key drivers appear more likely to be yields and the interest-rate path at the end of October than the moving average itself.
A moving average is a reference point, not a guarantee.
After falling again to the 200-day moving average, down about 9% from the August high, the daily chart is back in contact with the still-rising 200-day moving average. This is the fourth retest in the current uptrend.
The setups at the circled points in the first three instances look very similar:
After the first retest in summer 2025, it continued higher. After the second retest at the end of 2025, it rallied. After the third retest in March–April 2026, it surged to 304–305 in August.
The moving average itself is still rising, and the trend remains intact.
Here’s one way to look at the levels:
If it holds 274–277 (the 200-day moving average + the October 8 low), the “retest and resume the uptrend” scenario seen in the first three instances remains in play.
A clear daily close below 274 would put the spring consolidation zone around 260 in focus, followed by the area near the April swing low around 240. To the upside, first watch 282–284, then 290–292.
It’s still up about 13% year to date, and its valuation discount relative to the broader market remains. But this time around, the key drivers appear more likely to be yields and the interest-rate path at the end of October than the moving average itself.
A moving average is a reference point, not a guarantee.