#比特币跌破8.1万美元 U.S. Stock Market Analysis: Middle East Oil Shock + AI “Shortfall” Sink Nasdaq 1.25%, but Two Signals Offer Support
The Nasdaq took another beating Thursday, falling 1.25% to close at 27,193. The S&P 500 dropped 0.47%, while the Dow eked out a 0.10% gain, propped up by energy stocks. The market was sharply divided: energy rose nearly 3%, while tech brought up the rear, down 1.78%.
Two developments weighed on the market. First, tensions escalated on multiple fronts in the Middle East: Houthi militants attacked a Saudi airport, and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell to its lowest level since July. WTI briefly surged more than 4%. Second, OpenAI told investors that its annualized revenue was close to $50 billion as of the end of September—fully $20 billion below the $70 billion previously touted in media reports—triggering a sell-off in AI stocks.
The chain reaction was clear. Rising oil prices fueled inflation expectations, sending Treasury yields higher early in the session. But once OpenAI’s revenue shortfall came to light, the market’s thinking shifted immediately: AI capital spending might not be as aggressive as expected, easing marginal pressure on Treasury demand. Longer-dated Treasuries, in turn, attracted safe-haven buying, and the 10-year yield fell 5 basis points to 5.227%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 3.39%, Nvidia fell nearly 3%, and Oracle dropped more than 5.5%.
Bitcoin fell 1.9% to around $81,800, tracking the broader weakness in risk assets.
Put simply, the main driver of this sell-off wasn’t the Middle East—it was a crack in the AI narrative. But demand at the 30-year Treasury auction was exceptionally strong, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.54, well above average, showing that buyers are stepping in at the long end. The split between rising energy stocks and plunging tech stocks may persist in the near term, so don’t rush to buy the dip in chip stocks.
The Nasdaq took another beating Thursday, falling 1.25% to close at 27,193. The S&P 500 dropped 0.47%, while the Dow eked out a 0.10% gain, propped up by energy stocks. The market was sharply divided: energy rose nearly 3%, while tech brought up the rear, down 1.78%.
Two developments weighed on the market. First, tensions escalated on multiple fronts in the Middle East: Houthi militants attacked a Saudi airport, and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell to its lowest level since July. WTI briefly surged more than 4%. Second, OpenAI told investors that its annualized revenue was close to $50 billion as of the end of September—fully $20 billion below the $70 billion previously touted in media reports—triggering a sell-off in AI stocks.
The chain reaction was clear. Rising oil prices fueled inflation expectations, sending Treasury yields higher early in the session. But once OpenAI’s revenue shortfall came to light, the market’s thinking shifted immediately: AI capital spending might not be as aggressive as expected, easing marginal pressure on Treasury demand. Longer-dated Treasuries, in turn, attracted safe-haven buying, and the 10-year yield fell 5 basis points to 5.227%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 3.39%, Nvidia fell nearly 3%, and Oracle dropped more than 5.5%.
Bitcoin fell 1.9% to around $81,800, tracking the broader weakness in risk assets.
Put simply, the main driver of this sell-off wasn’t the Middle East—it was a crack in the AI narrative. But demand at the 30-year Treasury auction was exceptionally strong, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.54, well above average, showing that buyers are stepping in at the long end. The split between rising energy stocks and plunging tech stocks may persist in the near term, so don’t rush to buy the dip in chip stocks.