I was still counting liquidation orders in the early hours. By noon, I checked the charts: a few coins that got absolutely crushed yesterday had climbed back off the floor today 🤣
ZEC bounced from a low of 1112 to around 1218, NEAR rebounded from 4.3 to 4.79, UNI climbed back above 7.3, and BTC reclaimed 82,400. After last night’s FOMC minutes came out, nearly $1 billion in positions was liquidated across the market in 24 hours. Nine out of ten were longs—all fuel for the market.
A bounce is a bounce, but there are two things worth looking at separately today.
First, the $HYPE unlock went through. The project team’s 3.75M unlock for core contributors (about $330 million) has landed. Half of it, 1.875M, was distributed to five wallets. On-chain trackers say institutions may have taken it via OTC, while there’s been no movement on the other half. The team says the entire batch was handled OTC and won’t enter the public market, but they haven’t disclosed who the buyers are, the price, or whether there’s a lockup period. HYPE is currently at 85.44, down more than 10% from its late-September high of 98. Funding rates have turned negative, and futures open interest has fallen nearly 6% in two days. That remaining half is the real question mark hanging over the market.
The other development: the U.S. government wallet has made another move. Apart from the batch transferred to exchanges earlier, on 10-08 another 12,267 BTC (worth around $1 billion) was sent to a brand-new, unlabeled address. This time it didn’t go to an exchange, so it’s most likely just an internal wallet reshuffle—not a sell-off, at least not yet. Last year’s executive order explicitly said that seized BTC could not be sold, and the coins sent to exchanges were going through custody procedures. Anyone who treated last night’s government transfer as a direct sell-off signal may have overreacted a bit.
The macro picture hasn’t eased up either: the Nasdaq fell another 1.3% last night, its worst single-day performance since mid-August; Fed Governor Waller came right out and said more rate hikes are still needed; the 10-year Treasury yield remains above 5.3%, and Brent crude surged to 104.18. BTC perpetual funding rates have dropped from 7% to below 1%. Futures are no longer overheated, but spot ETFs are still seeing net outflows.
To me, this looks more like a technical recovery after liquidations than a reversal. The other half of the unlock, the government wallet’s next move, and the month-end rate decision are all still looming. On days like this, it’s best to keep positions light and watch from the sidelines—don’t play the hero before the dust settles.
$HYPE $BTC #MarketAnalysis
ZEC bounced from a low of 1112 to around 1218, NEAR rebounded from 4.3 to 4.79, UNI climbed back above 7.3, and BTC reclaimed 82,400. After last night’s FOMC minutes came out, nearly $1 billion in positions was liquidated across the market in 24 hours. Nine out of ten were longs—all fuel for the market.
A bounce is a bounce, but there are two things worth looking at separately today.
First, the $HYPE unlock went through. The project team’s 3.75M unlock for core contributors (about $330 million) has landed. Half of it, 1.875M, was distributed to five wallets. On-chain trackers say institutions may have taken it via OTC, while there’s been no movement on the other half. The team says the entire batch was handled OTC and won’t enter the public market, but they haven’t disclosed who the buyers are, the price, or whether there’s a lockup period. HYPE is currently at 85.44, down more than 10% from its late-September high of 98. Funding rates have turned negative, and futures open interest has fallen nearly 6% in two days. That remaining half is the real question mark hanging over the market.
The other development: the U.S. government wallet has made another move. Apart from the batch transferred to exchanges earlier, on 10-08 another 12,267 BTC (worth around $1 billion) was sent to a brand-new, unlabeled address. This time it didn’t go to an exchange, so it’s most likely just an internal wallet reshuffle—not a sell-off, at least not yet. Last year’s executive order explicitly said that seized BTC could not be sold, and the coins sent to exchanges were going through custody procedures. Anyone who treated last night’s government transfer as a direct sell-off signal may have overreacted a bit.
The macro picture hasn’t eased up either: the Nasdaq fell another 1.3% last night, its worst single-day performance since mid-August; Fed Governor Waller came right out and said more rate hikes are still needed; the 10-year Treasury yield remains above 5.3%, and Brent crude surged to 104.18. BTC perpetual funding rates have dropped from 7% to below 1%. Futures are no longer overheated, but spot ETFs are still seeing net outflows.
To me, this looks more like a technical recovery after liquidations than a reversal. The other half of the unlock, the government wallet’s next move, and the month-end rate decision are all still looming. On days like this, it’s best to keep positions light and watch from the sidelines—don’t play the hero before the dust settles.
$HYPE $BTC #MarketAnalysis