The Calm Before the Storm! Countdown to the Fed’s “Dovish Bombshell”—How Can Retail Investors Get Ahead?
Macroeconomic turning points are always born in the cracks of market consensus.
Citi’s latest analysis suggests that a “dovish surprise” from the Fed may be brewing, with core PCE nearing 2% annualized growth serving as the key to a breakthrough. Core PCE rose just 0.2% month over month in August (July was revised to 0.1%). If the annualized rate stays around 2% for several consecutive months, the Fed’s “sufficient pace” threshold will be reached.
The September minutes have already hinted at what’s to come: if inflation continues to fall, the preemptive case for rate hikes will quickly unravel.
In my view, don’t mistake a “dovish surprise” for an immediate rate cut. What it really means is that the tightening cycle could end sooner than the dot plot suggests. Take energy costs, for example: businesses have yet to pass them on broadly to core prices, and the inflation transmission chain has already broken down. This is a classic trade based on diverging expectations. Warsh’s criteria may be a black box, but major investors are already quietly positioning ahead of the pack.
Rising rate-cut expectations are the starting gun for a rally in risk assets. Want to know where the next opportunities lie? Follow Ayan, and I’ll help you get ahead amid the information gap!!
#比特币跌破8.1万美元 #美参议员调查CantorFitzgerald与Tether关系 #Securitize推出代币化美股后股价涨超10% $BTC $ETH $NVDAB
Macroeconomic turning points are always born in the cracks of market consensus.
Citi’s latest analysis suggests that a “dovish surprise” from the Fed may be brewing, with core PCE nearing 2% annualized growth serving as the key to a breakthrough. Core PCE rose just 0.2% month over month in August (July was revised to 0.1%). If the annualized rate stays around 2% for several consecutive months, the Fed’s “sufficient pace” threshold will be reached.
The September minutes have already hinted at what’s to come: if inflation continues to fall, the preemptive case for rate hikes will quickly unravel.
In my view, don’t mistake a “dovish surprise” for an immediate rate cut. What it really means is that the tightening cycle could end sooner than the dot plot suggests. Take energy costs, for example: businesses have yet to pass them on broadly to core prices, and the inflation transmission chain has already broken down. This is a classic trade based on diverging expectations. Warsh’s criteria may be a black box, but major investors are already quietly positioning ahead of the pack.
Rising rate-cut expectations are the starting gun for a rally in risk assets. Want to know where the next opportunities lie? Follow Ayan, and I’ll help you get ahead amid the information gap!!
#比特币跌破8.1万美元 #美参议员调查CantorFitzgerald与Tether关系 #Securitize推出代币化美股后股价涨超10% $BTC $ETH $NVDAB