$BTC Last night, contract open interest fell from 96,423 coins to 92,723, down 3,700 in one go; yet the price bounced from 80,394 to 82,300. Over the same period, the share of retail accounts holding long positions rose from 64.8% to 65.8%—the lower the price goes, the more people are catching the knife.
This rebound wasn’t driven by fresh buying. Open interest fell while the price rose because shorts were forced to cover after getting squeezed. In just the hour around midnight, 2,252 coins were wiped out as leveraged positions were forcibly closed. But the number of traders holding long positions didn’t fall—it rose. The 4-hour KDJ’s J line surged from 1.8 to 61.7, and the daily ATR is still 2,153, so on the surface it looks like an oversold bounce. But the 4-hour EMA12 is at 82,796, and the current price is still below it. The lower daily Keltner Channel band is at 79,986, less than 400 points below last night’s low; the bottom of the range hasn’t really been confirmed yet. The funding rate has also turned positive: at the 08:00 settlement, it was already +0.0018%. Shorts are no longer paying, so the fuel for a short squeeze is gone too.
The mechanics are simple: the leveraged traders were forced out last night, while the retail longs who weren’t shaken out are still in the market, with their stop-losses set below 80,394.
Yesterday I said to wait until the long-account ratio fell back to 55% before reassessing. It’s still hovering near 65%. I don’t take this bounce to 82,300 as a sign that the trend has recovered. Until open interest starts building again and the long-account ratio drops first, I’d rather see whether 80,394 gets tested again.
#BTC #比特币 #Futures
This rebound wasn’t driven by fresh buying. Open interest fell while the price rose because shorts were forced to cover after getting squeezed. In just the hour around midnight, 2,252 coins were wiped out as leveraged positions were forcibly closed. But the number of traders holding long positions didn’t fall—it rose. The 4-hour KDJ’s J line surged from 1.8 to 61.7, and the daily ATR is still 2,153, so on the surface it looks like an oversold bounce. But the 4-hour EMA12 is at 82,796, and the current price is still below it. The lower daily Keltner Channel band is at 79,986, less than 400 points below last night’s low; the bottom of the range hasn’t really been confirmed yet. The funding rate has also turned positive: at the 08:00 settlement, it was already +0.0018%. Shorts are no longer paying, so the fuel for a short squeeze is gone too.
The mechanics are simple: the leveraged traders were forced out last night, while the retail longs who weren’t shaken out are still in the market, with their stop-losses set below 80,394.
Yesterday I said to wait until the long-account ratio fell back to 55% before reassessing. It’s still hovering near 65%. I don’t take this bounce to 82,300 as a sign that the trend has recovered. Until open interest starts building again and the long-account ratio drops first, I’d rather see whether 80,394 gets tested again.
#BTC #比特币 #Futures