This crash wiped out $200 billion in 48 hours. A lot of followers are asking: “Yu, can we buy the dip?”
Don’t ask why the market dropped. First ask yourself: are you using leverage, or are you buying spot?
In 48 hours, the crypto market lost more than $200 billion in market cap. Bitcoin fell below $81,000, hitting a low of around $80,400. Ethereum lost $2,450 and came close to $2,400. Long positions were liquidated one after another, with more than $1.1 billion in liquidations over 24 hours—around $400 million of that in just one hour.
On October 7, I said: Don’t chase the market. BTC and ETH were going to fall, with targets around $81,000 and $2,450. Two days later, they hit those levels, just as expected.
This wasn’t caused by a single sudden shock. It was five things piling up at once.
Tensions with Iran escalated, an oil tanker was attacked, and the Strait of Hormuz came under renewed pressure. Brent crude surged above $105. Higher oil prices push inflation expectations up, and risk assets take the hit first.
U.S. Treasury yields neared their highest levels in more than 20 years, with the 10-year yield briefly rising above 5.3%. When risk-free rates are this high, high-volatility assets are the first to get marked down.
The market is worried the Fed isn’t done raising rates. There was already one hike in September, the minutes are still pending, and expectations for rate cuts are being pushed further out.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $485 million in net outflows in a single day—the biggest day since June. BlackRock’s IBIT alone saw $208 million leave. Institutions are cutting exposure; this isn’t just retail investors scaring themselves.
Add unusual activity in U.S.-related Bitcoin wallets and growing concerns about AI security, and risk appetite is falling across the board.
Macro liquidity is drying up, geopolitical tensions are lighting the fuse, ETFs are pulling away the ladder, and leverage is adding another blow. So this crash wasn’t driven by fear alone—it was a cascade of forced selling.
Hitting the target doesn’t mean we’ve reached the bottom. $81,000 and $2,450 were targets, not floors. If oil prices don’t come down, yields don’t fall, and ETF outflows continue, then any rebound is a chance for leveraged traders to reduce their positions. Until the leverage is flushed out, don’t rush to buy the dip with futures.
Spot investors are in a different position. You don’t have to race against liquidation—you can buy in gradually and close the app once you’re done. If futures traders jump back in now, they’re sending orders straight to the liquidation engine.
Keep an eye on three things: oil, U.S. Treasuries, and ETFs. If none of these ease up, a rebound is a chance to reduce exposure, not add leverage. I’ve written down whether to reduce or wait each day at @渔歌趋势 . If you still want to go all in at $80,400, first leave a comment saying whether you’re buying spot or using leverage—and how much. For spot, I’ll explain how to buy in gradually. For futures, I’ll only tell you whether you should stay in. Nobody knows where the floor is right now #BTC #ETH走势分析
Don’t ask why the market dropped. First ask yourself: are you using leverage, or are you buying spot?
In 48 hours, the crypto market lost more than $200 billion in market cap. Bitcoin fell below $81,000, hitting a low of around $80,400. Ethereum lost $2,450 and came close to $2,400. Long positions were liquidated one after another, with more than $1.1 billion in liquidations over 24 hours—around $400 million of that in just one hour.
On October 7, I said: Don’t chase the market. BTC and ETH were going to fall, with targets around $81,000 and $2,450. Two days later, they hit those levels, just as expected.
This wasn’t caused by a single sudden shock. It was five things piling up at once.
Tensions with Iran escalated, an oil tanker was attacked, and the Strait of Hormuz came under renewed pressure. Brent crude surged above $105. Higher oil prices push inflation expectations up, and risk assets take the hit first.
U.S. Treasury yields neared their highest levels in more than 20 years, with the 10-year yield briefly rising above 5.3%. When risk-free rates are this high, high-volatility assets are the first to get marked down.
The market is worried the Fed isn’t done raising rates. There was already one hike in September, the minutes are still pending, and expectations for rate cuts are being pushed further out.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $485 million in net outflows in a single day—the biggest day since June. BlackRock’s IBIT alone saw $208 million leave. Institutions are cutting exposure; this isn’t just retail investors scaring themselves.
Add unusual activity in U.S.-related Bitcoin wallets and growing concerns about AI security, and risk appetite is falling across the board.
Macro liquidity is drying up, geopolitical tensions are lighting the fuse, ETFs are pulling away the ladder, and leverage is adding another blow. So this crash wasn’t driven by fear alone—it was a cascade of forced selling.
Hitting the target doesn’t mean we’ve reached the bottom. $81,000 and $2,450 were targets, not floors. If oil prices don’t come down, yields don’t fall, and ETF outflows continue, then any rebound is a chance for leveraged traders to reduce their positions. Until the leverage is flushed out, don’t rush to buy the dip with futures.
Spot investors are in a different position. You don’t have to race against liquidation—you can buy in gradually and close the app once you’re done. If futures traders jump back in now, they’re sending orders straight to the liquidation engine.
Keep an eye on three things: oil, U.S. Treasuries, and ETFs. If none of these ease up, a rebound is a chance to reduce exposure, not add leverage. I’ve written down whether to reduce or wait each day at @渔歌趋势 . If you still want to go all in at $80,400, first leave a comment saying whether you’re buying spot or using leverage—and how much. For spot, I’ll explain how to buy in gradually. For futures, I’ll only tell you whether you should stay in. Nobody knows where the floor is right now #BTC #ETH走势分析