Hey everyone, Lina here talking U.S. stocks and crypto.
The Fed’s September minutes just came out: Most officials believe the upside risks to inflation haven’t gone away, but if the labor market keeps cooling, they could still cut rates once more this year. Translation: They’re not sure either—it all depends on the data. This is the toughest setup to trade: restrictive policy is still in place, but the direction could turn at any moment.
Now look at the two forces pulling against each other. On inflation: The ISM manufacturing Prices Paid Index came in at 77.9, while eurozone HICP hit 3.8%, above expectations—price pressures are flaring up again. On jobs: September nonfarm payrolls came in at just 29,000 versus expectations of 90,000, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and private payrolls added 46,000. The labor market is cracking while inflation is holding firm. This isn’t a soft-landing script; it has the smell of stagflation. 😅
Keep an eye on three things next. On October 9, the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading is expected at 47.6, down from 48.1. Focus on the inflation expectations component—it’s the canary in the coal mine for CPI. On October 13, September CPI is the dividing line: A higher-than-expected reading could revive rate-hike expectations, putting $QQQ and $BTC under pressure together; a lower-than-expected reading could send the market straight into recession trades, lifting Treasuries and gold. Initial jobless claims on October 15 and 22 were previously 197,000; any move higher would confirm cracks in the labor market.
My approach: Don’t chase the rally. Wait for CPI to come out before deciding on positions. You can gradually add duration to Treasuries; $BTC is a play on dollar liquidity, not sentiment. Don’t be afraid to act—but don’t act blindly in the face of the data. 👍
#宏观 #美联储 #LinaTalksUSStocksAndCrypto
The Fed’s September minutes just came out: Most officials believe the upside risks to inflation haven’t gone away, but if the labor market keeps cooling, they could still cut rates once more this year. Translation: They’re not sure either—it all depends on the data. This is the toughest setup to trade: restrictive policy is still in place, but the direction could turn at any moment.
Now look at the two forces pulling against each other. On inflation: The ISM manufacturing Prices Paid Index came in at 77.9, while eurozone HICP hit 3.8%, above expectations—price pressures are flaring up again. On jobs: September nonfarm payrolls came in at just 29,000 versus expectations of 90,000, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and private payrolls added 46,000. The labor market is cracking while inflation is holding firm. This isn’t a soft-landing script; it has the smell of stagflation. 😅
Keep an eye on three things next. On October 9, the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading is expected at 47.6, down from 48.1. Focus on the inflation expectations component—it’s the canary in the coal mine for CPI. On October 13, September CPI is the dividing line: A higher-than-expected reading could revive rate-hike expectations, putting $QQQ and $BTC under pressure together; a lower-than-expected reading could send the market straight into recession trades, lifting Treasuries and gold. Initial jobless claims on October 15 and 22 were previously 197,000; any move higher would confirm cracks in the labor market.
My approach: Don’t chase the rally. Wait for CPI to come out before deciding on positions. You can gradually add duration to Treasuries; $BTC is a play on dollar liquidity, not sentiment. Don’t be afraid to act—but don’t act blindly in the face of the data. 👍
#宏观 #美联储 #LinaTalksUSStocksAndCrypto