Tomorrow, 10.10
On this day last year, Bitcoin plunged from around $122,000 in a single sharp drop.
It never reclaimed its high of $126,000.
A year has passed.
Now look at this week:
On October 7, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $487 million in net outflows in a single day—the most since June.
BlackRock’s IBIT alone saw $208 million flow out....
October opened with net outflows overall, eating into some of September’s strong inflows.
Ethereum ETFs have also seen consecutive outflows.
The Fed’s September meeting minutes were released. Most officials thought another rate hike this year was still possible.
The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around 5.3%, a multi-year high.
Tensions in the Middle East and around the Strait of Hormuz haven’t eased, and oil prices continue to weigh on risk assets.
In the 24 hours around the 8th, liquidations topped $1 billion, with longs making up the vast majority.
And one more thing:
An address linked to the U.S. government moved more than 10,000 bitcoins, worth about $1 billion.
They came from the batch of coins seized from Bitfinex.
The receiving address isn’t labeled.
There’s no confirmation they were sold, but as soon as news like this surfaces, the uncertainty gets priced in.
//
How I see it
ETF outflows, macro tightening, liquidations—
Taken together, they’re really different facets of the same thing: rates staying high for too long, and leverage being the first to exit.
That’s how the market is interpreting it for now: “deleveraging,” not a trend reversal.
The government wallet is a separate issue to watch.
There have been similar moves before: some coins were transferred and not sold, while others were sold off gradually.
The address not being labeled doesn’t mean anything one way or the other. It’s just another unknown on the market’s radar.
As for tomorrow’s date:
Markets don’t trade by the calendar, but traders remember dates.
An anniversary effect doesn’t change the fundamentals, but it can amplify sentiment—
especially when the previous high still hasn’t been reclaimed.
There have been a lot of signals this week.
Taken one by one, none is enough on its own to reverse the direction.
The key variable is still Treasury yields.
If 5.3% moves higher, risk assets won’t be very comfortable.
On this day last year, Bitcoin plunged from around $122,000 in a single sharp drop.
It never reclaimed its high of $126,000.
A year has passed.
Now look at this week:
On October 7, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $487 million in net outflows in a single day—the most since June.
BlackRock’s IBIT alone saw $208 million flow out....
October opened with net outflows overall, eating into some of September’s strong inflows.
Ethereum ETFs have also seen consecutive outflows.
The Fed’s September meeting minutes were released. Most officials thought another rate hike this year was still possible.
The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around 5.3%, a multi-year high.
Tensions in the Middle East and around the Strait of Hormuz haven’t eased, and oil prices continue to weigh on risk assets.
In the 24 hours around the 8th, liquidations topped $1 billion, with longs making up the vast majority.
And one more thing:
An address linked to the U.S. government moved more than 10,000 bitcoins, worth about $1 billion.
They came from the batch of coins seized from Bitfinex.
The receiving address isn’t labeled.
There’s no confirmation they were sold, but as soon as news like this surfaces, the uncertainty gets priced in.
//
How I see it
ETF outflows, macro tightening, liquidations—
Taken together, they’re really different facets of the same thing: rates staying high for too long, and leverage being the first to exit.
That’s how the market is interpreting it for now: “deleveraging,” not a trend reversal.
The government wallet is a separate issue to watch.
There have been similar moves before: some coins were transferred and not sold, while others were sold off gradually.
The address not being labeled doesn’t mean anything one way or the other. It’s just another unknown on the market’s radar.
As for tomorrow’s date:
Markets don’t trade by the calendar, but traders remember dates.
An anniversary effect doesn’t change the fundamentals, but it can amplify sentiment—
especially when the previous high still hasn’t been reclaimed.
There have been a lot of signals this week.
Taken one by one, none is enough on its own to reverse the direction.
The key variable is still Treasury yields.
If 5.3% moves higher, risk assets won’t be very comfortable.