Bitcoin drops 1.80% to 81.9k; Ethereum falls 3.77%; SOL slides 5.10%. Today marks the second consecutive day of a broad selloff. All eight sectors have negative midpoints; the highest share of gainers is only 22%.
First, let’s talk about yesterday. Last night, I wrote that if you were going to follow, you should wait for Solana ecosystem’s overall pullback. The pullback came, but it was more severe than I expected. Among the three I picked midday: MET fell from 0.5003 to 0.442, down 11.65%; RAY dropped from 2.4611 to 2.3458, down 4.68%; NEAR fell from 5.279 to 4.521, down 14.36%. In the ecosystem, SOL is down 5.10%, JUP down 5.30%, and JTO down 6.25%. My call on the direction of yesterday’s sector-wide strength was correct, but I underestimated the pullback intensity—this needs to be acknowledged.
For payments and settlement: today is the fourth trading day in a row with an upward share of 0. A sector with no member posting gains for four consecutive days is not normal weakness—it means capital is systematically withdrawing from the system.
None of the eight sectors is positive. The smallest midpoint drawdown is payments and settlement at 3.06%, and the largest is AI at 6.62%. In AI, the share of nine members that rose is also 0. The highest-weight L1 chain by trading volume—totalling 2.319 billion—has only a 13% share of gainers.
There are also pockets of strength in the market. OGN is up 106%, with 55.3 million in trading volume. RLC is up 29.10%, with 27 million traded—this is the one I corrected by market cap a few days ago. STRK is up 13.66%, and TIA is up 8.58%. These are scattered flows; they can’t change the sector trend.
My conclusion is straightforward: two consecutive days of broad selloff, and now payments and settlement has gone to zero for four days. This isn’t a time to look for direction—it’s a time to wait for direction. My optimism from yesterday needs to be partially withdrawn; the position size should be lighter.
#加密货币 #资金流向 #risk management
First, let’s talk about yesterday. Last night, I wrote that if you were going to follow, you should wait for Solana ecosystem’s overall pullback. The pullback came, but it was more severe than I expected. Among the three I picked midday: MET fell from 0.5003 to 0.442, down 11.65%; RAY dropped from 2.4611 to 2.3458, down 4.68%; NEAR fell from 5.279 to 4.521, down 14.36%. In the ecosystem, SOL is down 5.10%, JUP down 5.30%, and JTO down 6.25%. My call on the direction of yesterday’s sector-wide strength was correct, but I underestimated the pullback intensity—this needs to be acknowledged.
For payments and settlement: today is the fourth trading day in a row with an upward share of 0. A sector with no member posting gains for four consecutive days is not normal weakness—it means capital is systematically withdrawing from the system.
None of the eight sectors is positive. The smallest midpoint drawdown is payments and settlement at 3.06%, and the largest is AI at 6.62%. In AI, the share of nine members that rose is also 0. The highest-weight L1 chain by trading volume—totalling 2.319 billion—has only a 13% share of gainers.
There are also pockets of strength in the market. OGN is up 106%, with 55.3 million in trading volume. RLC is up 29.10%, with 27 million traded—this is the one I corrected by market cap a few days ago. STRK is up 13.66%, and TIA is up 8.58%. These are scattered flows; they can’t change the sector trend.
My conclusion is straightforward: two consecutive days of broad selloff, and now payments and settlement has gone to zero for four days. This isn’t a time to look for direction—it’s a time to wait for direction. My optimism from yesterday needs to be partially withdrawn; the position size should be lighter.
#加密货币 #资金流向 #risk management