🔍 A hurricane, shutting down 60% of offshore oil wells in the United States
On Wednesday evening, Isaias was upgraded into the first hurricane of this Atlantic season, moving toward the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico. Landfall will not come until late Friday into early Saturday, but it already did one thing first: it shut down U.S. oil wells.
According to operator reports filed with the U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management at 11 a.m. Thursday, 62.89% of Gulf crude oil production has stopped—1.28 million barrels per day. Natural gas is down 57.35%, at 1.13 billion cubic feet per day. 121 producing platforms have been evacuated, accounting for 32.61% of the 371 manned platforms in the Gulf.
It’s happening unbelievably fast. On Tuesday, the number of platforms pulled was zero, with offline oil volume at 9.24%. By Thursday alone, the number of operators reporting data jumped from 1 to 12. That fast.
Oil prices reacted immediately. WTI rose to around $91, up 3.6%. Brent hit $104, up 3.8%. Heating oil rose 5.6%. The U.S. average retail gasoline price on Thursday was $4.36 per gallon, compared with $3.12 a year ago. For the first time in history, as of October the national average is still above $4.
There was another twist at midday. On Truth Social, Trump said that before the midterm elections in November, he would not strike Iran—oil prices would fall accordingly—yet it didn’t erase that day’s gains.
Crypto is a different story. When I’m writing this, four BTC price feeds are between $81,855 and $81,934, down 1.5% over 24 hours. ETH is at 2,478, down 3.6%.
On one side, the hurricane cuts off physical supply—1.28 million barrels a day—pushing oil up to 104. On the other, BTC supply is hard-coded in code forever at 21 million coins, and the price is still drifting lower.
Two kinds of scarcity, priced by the market on its own ledgers. Oil depends on whether the ships and wells can keep running; BTC depends on whether capital is willing to stay in risk assets. The hurricane brings an old truth back into focus: scarcity in supply is measured in physical terms, while scarcity in prices is measured in liquidity.
What to watch is the restart after landfall. Wells are shut quickly, but ramping them back up takes time. Since those 1.28 million barrels won’t come back quickly, the pressure above oil prices remains.
$BTC $ETH
#中本聪国际社区Baoluo币商资本 #Bitcoin #Energy
On Wednesday evening, Isaias was upgraded into the first hurricane of this Atlantic season, moving toward the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico. Landfall will not come until late Friday into early Saturday, but it already did one thing first: it shut down U.S. oil wells.
According to operator reports filed with the U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management at 11 a.m. Thursday, 62.89% of Gulf crude oil production has stopped—1.28 million barrels per day. Natural gas is down 57.35%, at 1.13 billion cubic feet per day. 121 producing platforms have been evacuated, accounting for 32.61% of the 371 manned platforms in the Gulf.
It’s happening unbelievably fast. On Tuesday, the number of platforms pulled was zero, with offline oil volume at 9.24%. By Thursday alone, the number of operators reporting data jumped from 1 to 12. That fast.
Oil prices reacted immediately. WTI rose to around $91, up 3.6%. Brent hit $104, up 3.8%. Heating oil rose 5.6%. The U.S. average retail gasoline price on Thursday was $4.36 per gallon, compared with $3.12 a year ago. For the first time in history, as of October the national average is still above $4.
There was another twist at midday. On Truth Social, Trump said that before the midterm elections in November, he would not strike Iran—oil prices would fall accordingly—yet it didn’t erase that day’s gains.
Crypto is a different story. When I’m writing this, four BTC price feeds are between $81,855 and $81,934, down 1.5% over 24 hours. ETH is at 2,478, down 3.6%.
On one side, the hurricane cuts off physical supply—1.28 million barrels a day—pushing oil up to 104. On the other, BTC supply is hard-coded in code forever at 21 million coins, and the price is still drifting lower.
Two kinds of scarcity, priced by the market on its own ledgers. Oil depends on whether the ships and wells can keep running; BTC depends on whether capital is willing to stay in risk assets. The hurricane brings an old truth back into focus: scarcity in supply is measured in physical terms, while scarcity in prices is measured in liquidity.
What to watch is the restart after landfall. Wells are shut quickly, but ramping them back up takes time. Since those 1.28 million barrels won’t come back quickly, the pressure above oil prices remains.
$BTC $ETH
#中本聪国际社区Baoluo币商资本 #Bitcoin #Energy