The FOMC released the September meeting minutes.
The takeaway is hawkish: all 19 officials supported a rate hike in September, and most believe an additional “appropriate” hike will be warranted before the end of 2026. Officials expressed concern about limited progress on inflation and cited rising U.S. Treasury yields and uncertainty from AI-related debt issuance.
BTC fell from near 87,000 to a low of 83,000, a drop of about 4.7%, with $550 million in long positions liquidated.
Then BTC rebounded from 83,000 back to 83,500–84,000.
This “it fell but didn’t break” structure is worth taking more seriously than the price move itself.
What the FOMC minutes said was genuinely hawkish—but before the minutes were released, the market had already priced in part of the hawkish expectations. A September rate hike is known; “one more time before year-end” was already being priced in last week by the bond market (85% probability at least one more hike). Since the minutes didn’t bring any additional information beyond expectations, real buying showed up around 83,000, and price didn’t keep sliding lower.
Two things to watch today:
Waller’s speech at the Istanbul Economic Forum today (this afternoon Beijing time). Waller is a leading spokesperson for the Fed’s dovish camp internally; in September, he was one of the voices supporting a “pause.” After the hawkish minutes, whether his tone softens the October rate-hike expectations is the most direct market signal today.
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (later tonight). The initial forecast is 48.1; if inflation expectations rise, rate-hike expectations will be pushed higher again. If inflation expectations fall, it’s a near-term positive.
In the bigger picture, this week’s BTC was rejected at 87,000 three times, and then the FOMC minutes sent price back to 83,000—a pullback of about 4.7%, consistent with the first half of the expectation from the 2012 analogy of “down first by 9.7%, then up 2000%.”
Next week, Oct 14 CPI will be the real data that determines whether 87,000 can be broken. Today’s Waller speech is just a signal window—not a direction setter.
Hold 83,000–84,000—that’s the real positive signal this week coming in from the pullback. Can you accept that read?
In the past week, was there liquidation in the plaza because of the FOMC minutes? Or did people cut positions early to wait out this pullback? Share your thoughts.
$BTC
#BTC
The takeaway is hawkish: all 19 officials supported a rate hike in September, and most believe an additional “appropriate” hike will be warranted before the end of 2026. Officials expressed concern about limited progress on inflation and cited rising U.S. Treasury yields and uncertainty from AI-related debt issuance.
BTC fell from near 87,000 to a low of 83,000, a drop of about 4.7%, with $550 million in long positions liquidated.
Then BTC rebounded from 83,000 back to 83,500–84,000.
This “it fell but didn’t break” structure is worth taking more seriously than the price move itself.
What the FOMC minutes said was genuinely hawkish—but before the minutes were released, the market had already priced in part of the hawkish expectations. A September rate hike is known; “one more time before year-end” was already being priced in last week by the bond market (85% probability at least one more hike). Since the minutes didn’t bring any additional information beyond expectations, real buying showed up around 83,000, and price didn’t keep sliding lower.
Two things to watch today:
Waller’s speech at the Istanbul Economic Forum today (this afternoon Beijing time). Waller is a leading spokesperson for the Fed’s dovish camp internally; in September, he was one of the voices supporting a “pause.” After the hawkish minutes, whether his tone softens the October rate-hike expectations is the most direct market signal today.
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (later tonight). The initial forecast is 48.1; if inflation expectations rise, rate-hike expectations will be pushed higher again. If inflation expectations fall, it’s a near-term positive.
In the bigger picture, this week’s BTC was rejected at 87,000 three times, and then the FOMC minutes sent price back to 83,000—a pullback of about 4.7%, consistent with the first half of the expectation from the 2012 analogy of “down first by 9.7%, then up 2000%.”
Next week, Oct 14 CPI will be the real data that determines whether 87,000 can be broken. Today’s Waller speech is just a signal window—not a direction setter.
Hold 83,000–84,000—that’s the real positive signal this week coming in from the pullback. Can you accept that read?
In the past week, was there liquidation in the plaza because of the FOMC minutes? Or did people cut positions early to wait out this pullback? Share your thoughts.
$BTC
#BTC
