$BTC fell more than 5% over two days. The proportion of accounts going long has jumped to 63%.
Intuition usually says that when prices drop hard, the crowd must be afraid and should sell out. But this week’s futures positioning data tells the opposite story.
From 29/9 to 7/10, the long accounts ratio out of total open positions—$BTC (long/short ratio)—fluctuated around 50–58%. Immediately after the sharp decline session on 8/10—bottom at $80,393, closing at $81,876—the ratio jumped to 62.8%, the highest level in the ten-day streak.
Funding fees (the funding rate—longs and shorts pay each other every 8 hours) move in the same direction. In most sessions from 29/9 to 7/10, the funding fee was negative, meaning the short side was paying the long side. In exactly the session when price touched the bottom in the morning of 8/10, the funding rate flipped to positive—new money flows decidedly leaning toward buyers.
The long/short ratio is counted by number of accounts, not by volume, so it reflects the sentiment of retail traders more clearly than a few large funds. After the price fell deeply, many small accounts simultaneously thought “it’s cheap now” and opened longs at the same time.
The issue: when the long ratio spikes right after a drop, historically it can be a contrarian signal rather than confirmation of a bottom. It’s easy for the crowd to rush into longs at the moment price has just fallen—only to be swept by a second downward leg that wipes them out.
What proves this reading is wrong: if $BTC holds firm in the zone it just tested, and there is no second downward leg that wipes out the new longs, then this bottom-catching attempt is correct.
Next checkpoints: whether the funding fee stays positive, or flips back to negative immediately when price bounces slightly—that’s a sign of whether the new long side is truly confident.
Are you guys in the group that just opened longs after this drop?
Personal observation, not investment advice
#BTC #Bitcoin #OnChain #FundingRate #CryptoVN
Intuition usually says that when prices drop hard, the crowd must be afraid and should sell out. But this week’s futures positioning data tells the opposite story.
From 29/9 to 7/10, the long accounts ratio out of total open positions—$BTC (long/short ratio)—fluctuated around 50–58%. Immediately after the sharp decline session on 8/10—bottom at $80,393, closing at $81,876—the ratio jumped to 62.8%, the highest level in the ten-day streak.
Funding fees (the funding rate—longs and shorts pay each other every 8 hours) move in the same direction. In most sessions from 29/9 to 7/10, the funding fee was negative, meaning the short side was paying the long side. In exactly the session when price touched the bottom in the morning of 8/10, the funding rate flipped to positive—new money flows decidedly leaning toward buyers.
The long/short ratio is counted by number of accounts, not by volume, so it reflects the sentiment of retail traders more clearly than a few large funds. After the price fell deeply, many small accounts simultaneously thought “it’s cheap now” and opened longs at the same time.
The issue: when the long ratio spikes right after a drop, historically it can be a contrarian signal rather than confirmation of a bottom. It’s easy for the crowd to rush into longs at the moment price has just fallen—only to be swept by a second downward leg that wipes them out.
What proves this reading is wrong: if $BTC holds firm in the zone it just tested, and there is no second downward leg that wipes out the new longs, then this bottom-catching attempt is correct.
Next checkpoints: whether the funding fee stays positive, or flips back to negative immediately when price bounces slightly—that’s a sign of whether the new long side is truly confident.
Are you guys in the group that just opened longs after this drop?
Personal observation, not investment advice
#BTC #Bitcoin #OnChain #FundingRate #CryptoVN