08.10.2026 22:00 (Kyiv time) #solana
Current price — approximately $108.8–108.9. Daily high — $117.19, low — $105.94. The drop from the high to the low was approximately 9.6%.
What was confirmed
The previous negative scenario was triggered below $116.18/$115.70:
passed $115.00;
passed $114.70–114.50;
passed the final target $114.00;
the decline continued to $105,94.
So the forecast direction was correct, but the magnitude of the move turned out to be much larger. This is no longer a typical local correction, but a full liquidation wave.
MACD is negative on all three timeframes and is still expanding downward. There is no clear bullish divergence yet.
According to the evening radar data, OI fell by about 5.5%, and funding remained only slightly negative. This looks more like the liquidation of longs and a general reduction in leverage than a market already overrun with shorts. Therefore, the fuel for an immediate large short squeeze is still limited.
Key SOL levels
Resistances:
$105,94;
$105,00;
$103,00;
$100,00.
Supports:
$107,74–108,08;
$109,57–110,72;
$113,20;
$114,40;
$115,70–116,18.
Scenarios for the morning
Base (45%): a wide range $105,94–109,60. A rebound up to $108–109,6 is possible, but as long as the price is below $110,70, it remains technical.
Positive (20%): holding $105,94 and hourly consolidation above $108,08, followed by $110,65–110,72. Targets: $113,20 → $114,40. Only a return above $113,20 will start breaking the bearish structure.
Negative (35%): hourly closing below $105,94. Targets: $103 → $100. A break below $100 may trigger a new wave of stops, but most likely it will require further downside in BTC.
Overall conclusion
The trend remains bearish below $110,70; the critical level is $105,94. A bounce during the night is likely, but there is no bullish confirmation yet.
The most important external filter is BTC: below $80,000, negative scenarios will prevail; a return above $81,700 will support an oversold bounce.
This is a subjective interpretation of the charts and not advice to buy or sell.