10/8 evening: $BTC market update
After a whole day of declines, will BTC crash? Will it keep falling sharply?
I think it’s still too early to reach that conclusion.
First, the daily candle hasn’t closed yet. And even if it breaks below the 82,500 support, as long as it closes back above it within three days—or consolidates for a while before closing back above it—the bullish trend remains intact. It would be similar to the previous shakeout (you can use that as a reference; the principle is the same).
Second, looking at the fifth wave up, BTC’s current pullback is only around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Although BTC has now fallen below the 82,500 support, as long as it doesn’t break below the low of the demand zone near 80,000, this could still be a bear trap set by market makers. A retest of the demand zone during an uptrend is perfectly normal.
In summary: The next few days are crucial. If the price breaks below 80,000 and fails to recover, the odds of it later falling below 75,000 will rise significantly. Otherwise, it will likely consolidate below 82,500 for a few days and then make a sharp V-shaped rebound around next Wednesday, when the CPI data is released. So let’s not call the outcome just yet—we’ll keep tracking it. Based on my earlier reasoning, after breaking through 82,800, the price hasn’t risen much; it hasn’t even gained 10%. It shouldn’t pull back sharply to below 75,000 now. Otherwise, most short sellers would get out at breakeven. Those who made a profit shorting during the bear market will think 82,800 is resistance and short there, with targets below 60,000, or even below 58,000. Those are exactly the big players the market makers want to liquidate. Manage your risk. This is an awkward spot, so we can just let time do its thing—we won’t have to wait long; the CPI data comes out next Wednesday.