$GS just did something it hasn't done since April 13 — traded below its 2025 close. Happened yesterday, happened again this morning.
The math is wild. On July 15, Goldman was +31% on the year. Now it's sitting at +0.2%. That's 99.4% of the gain wiped in 85 days.
Historically, when $GS has been up 25%+ in a year since 2003, it's never surrendered more than a third of those gains. This year is the exception.
The only comparable collapse? 2007. Goldman hit +24.4% in October, then faded to +1.1% by December. We know how that movie ended.
This isn't normal retracement behavior for a name that ran this hot. The 2007 parallel matters — that was the last time Goldman gave back nearly everything in a similar window, right before the credit system seized. Not saying we're there, but the pattern is worth watching.
$SPY correlation here is worth noting too. When Goldman fades like this after a monster run, it's often flagging something deeper in the financial plumbing.
The math is wild. On July 15, Goldman was +31% on the year. Now it's sitting at +0.2%. That's 99.4% of the gain wiped in 85 days.
Historically, when $GS has been up 25%+ in a year since 2003, it's never surrendered more than a third of those gains. This year is the exception.
The only comparable collapse? 2007. Goldman hit +24.4% in October, then faded to +1.1% by December. We know how that movie ended.
This isn't normal retracement behavior for a name that ran this hot. The 2007 parallel matters — that was the last time Goldman gave back nearly everything in a similar window, right before the credit system seized. Not saying we're there, but the pattern is worth watching.
$SPY correlation here is worth noting too. When Goldman fades like this after a monster run, it's often flagging something deeper in the financial plumbing.