$AAOIB said not to catch the falling knife—and nailed the call again
Guys, do you remember what I said in my last post? $AAOIB broke below its previous low and volume collapsed, so there was no need to rush in and catch the falling knife in the short term. My view was straightforward: bearish in the short term, with 117.8 as the downside target. I’d admit I was wrong only if it managed to reclaim and hold above 121.6.
Looking back now, things have pretty much played out as expected. This move fell from 118.16 to 116.04, a decline of about 1.79%, in line with the direction I called. I wasn’t fooled by those few low-volume bounces. Over the past four hours, the high was 119.3 and the low touched 115.66. Price stayed below the VWAP at 117.79. Volume tells the story too: volume in the last two hours fell about 56% compared with the previous two, and each bounce made a lower high. The area around 117.5 is the immediate resistance.
So my conclusion remains unchanged: $AAOIB is still bearish in the short term, with 119.3 as the invalidation level. As long as it can’t reclaim that level, the bearish thesis remains intact. On the downside, the first level to watch is whether the area around 115.6 can hold. The broader market hasn’t warmed up either: Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $485 million in a single day, the largest since June, and risk assets are under pressure overall. In times like these, smaller coins are often the first to take a hit.
To reiterate, this is a short-term market read, not a long-term victory lap. I’ll change my view if conditions change. Don’t chase at the top or rush to buy the dip—wait for volume and key levels to give you a signal. This is solely my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.
Original post: https://www.binance.com/zh-CN/square/post/375010677775956
Guys, do you remember what I said in my last post? $AAOIB broke below its previous low and volume collapsed, so there was no need to rush in and catch the falling knife in the short term. My view was straightforward: bearish in the short term, with 117.8 as the downside target. I’d admit I was wrong only if it managed to reclaim and hold above 121.6.
Looking back now, things have pretty much played out as expected. This move fell from 118.16 to 116.04, a decline of about 1.79%, in line with the direction I called. I wasn’t fooled by those few low-volume bounces. Over the past four hours, the high was 119.3 and the low touched 115.66. Price stayed below the VWAP at 117.79. Volume tells the story too: volume in the last two hours fell about 56% compared with the previous two, and each bounce made a lower high. The area around 117.5 is the immediate resistance.
So my conclusion remains unchanged: $AAOIB is still bearish in the short term, with 119.3 as the invalidation level. As long as it can’t reclaim that level, the bearish thesis remains intact. On the downside, the first level to watch is whether the area around 115.6 can hold. The broader market hasn’t warmed up either: Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $485 million in a single day, the largest since June, and risk assets are under pressure overall. In times like these, smaller coins are often the first to take a hit.
To reiterate, this is a short-term market read, not a long-term victory lap. I’ll change my view if conditions change. Don’t chase at the top or rush to buy the dip—wait for volume and key levels to give you a signal. This is solely my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.
Original post: https://www.binance.com/zh-CN/square/post/375010677775956