Guys, today Lina’s going to walk you through the macro story for U.S. stocks and crypto.
The overall tone is a shift toward easing, with 68% confidence. Put simply, the rate-cut cycle hasn’t stopped, but the market is rushing to get ahead of itself. The latest data is pretty interesting: August JOLTS job openings came in at 7.05 million versus expectations of 7.15 million—lower than expected. September ISM services was 51.8, just a bit short too. Employment is cooling and services are slowing; put those two together, and that gives the Fed confidence to keep cutting. On inflation, year-over-year CPI is back around 3.0%, while core inflation is still sticky. Don’t pretend you don’t see that.
What should we watch next? The FOMC minutes in the early hours of October 8, to see how committed officials are to another cut this year. The real test comes later: September CPI on October 13, with consensus at 0.2% MoM versus 0.3% previously. If that number rebounds, rate-cut expectations will get hit immediately. Retail sales on October 16 have consensus at 0.3% versus 0.5% previously. As long as consumer spending doesn’t collapse, the soft-landing narrative can hold. In between, we’ll get three initial jobless claims readings: 220,000, 222,000, and 225,000. The expectation that they’ll keep rising is a signal in itself.
The trading takeaway? The direction hasn’t changed; it’s a question of timing. For Treasuries, weaker data creates duration opportunities, but don’t go all-in before CPI. For U.S. stocks, focus on rate-sensitive areas and wait for the data to confirm before making a move. Crypto follows liquidity: as long as easing expectations remain, pullbacks are opportunities—but don’t get carried away the day before CPI.
Don’t be afraid—just do it. But first, check the calendar. Until the FOMC meeting on October 22, the data is only going to get noisier. The play is to hold your position, provided you know what you’re holding. 👍
#宏观 #美联储 #LinaTalksUSStocksAndCrypto
The overall tone is a shift toward easing, with 68% confidence. Put simply, the rate-cut cycle hasn’t stopped, but the market is rushing to get ahead of itself. The latest data is pretty interesting: August JOLTS job openings came in at 7.05 million versus expectations of 7.15 million—lower than expected. September ISM services was 51.8, just a bit short too. Employment is cooling and services are slowing; put those two together, and that gives the Fed confidence to keep cutting. On inflation, year-over-year CPI is back around 3.0%, while core inflation is still sticky. Don’t pretend you don’t see that.
What should we watch next? The FOMC minutes in the early hours of October 8, to see how committed officials are to another cut this year. The real test comes later: September CPI on October 13, with consensus at 0.2% MoM versus 0.3% previously. If that number rebounds, rate-cut expectations will get hit immediately. Retail sales on October 16 have consensus at 0.3% versus 0.5% previously. As long as consumer spending doesn’t collapse, the soft-landing narrative can hold. In between, we’ll get three initial jobless claims readings: 220,000, 222,000, and 225,000. The expectation that they’ll keep rising is a signal in itself.
The trading takeaway? The direction hasn’t changed; it’s a question of timing. For Treasuries, weaker data creates duration opportunities, but don’t go all-in before CPI. For U.S. stocks, focus on rate-sensitive areas and wait for the data to confirm before making a move. Crypto follows liquidity: as long as easing expectations remain, pullbacks are opportunities—but don’t get carried away the day before CPI.
Don’t be afraid—just do it. But first, check the calendar. Until the FOMC meeting on October 22, the data is only going to get noisier. The play is to hold your position, provided you know what you’re holding. 👍
#宏观 #美联储 #LinaTalksUSStocksAndCrypto