Brothers, Uncle Twelve will make things clear today.
JOLTS at 7.05 million came in below expectations, and ISM services at 51.8 also missed a bit 😅 Job growth is cooling, services are cooling, and core inflation is still sticky — the combination the Fed most wants to see and most fears to see. The rate-cut cycle hasn’t stopped; the pace is driven by the data.
The September FOMC has already cut 25bp, and the dot plot hints at one more cut this year. Is October a hold or another cut? Don’t guess — watch two numbers: October 13, September CPI, expected 0.2%, prior 0.3%; October 16, retail sales, expected 0.3%, prior 0.5%. If CPI rebounds above 0.3%, rate-cut expectations get pushed back, Treasury yields rise, and risk assets get hit first. If retail sales are also soft, that’s a double confirmation of "weak jobs + weak consumption," and the easing narrative actually gets stronger.
Don’t miss initial jobless claims either; 220,000, 222,000, 225,000 — steadily edging up. The numbers aren’t exploding, but the direction is very clear.
The Middle East ceasefire remains fragile, and the Russia-Ukraine stalemate continues, so safe-haven flows may pop up intermittently. Don’t mistake volatility for trend.
Uncle Twelve’s view: the easing direction hasn’t changed, October is a data-sensitive period, and don’t go fully loaded into positions before CPI — keep some ammo for the numbers. Assets like $BTC will follow liquidity expectations; U.S. stocks should watch consumption, and Treasuries should watch CPI.
Don’t be afraid — just do it, but do it at the right time 👍
#宏观 #美联储 #十二叔
JOLTS at 7.05 million came in below expectations, and ISM services at 51.8 also missed a bit 😅 Job growth is cooling, services are cooling, and core inflation is still sticky — the combination the Fed most wants to see and most fears to see. The rate-cut cycle hasn’t stopped; the pace is driven by the data.
The September FOMC has already cut 25bp, and the dot plot hints at one more cut this year. Is October a hold or another cut? Don’t guess — watch two numbers: October 13, September CPI, expected 0.2%, prior 0.3%; October 16, retail sales, expected 0.3%, prior 0.5%. If CPI rebounds above 0.3%, rate-cut expectations get pushed back, Treasury yields rise, and risk assets get hit first. If retail sales are also soft, that’s a double confirmation of "weak jobs + weak consumption," and the easing narrative actually gets stronger.
Don’t miss initial jobless claims either; 220,000, 222,000, 225,000 — steadily edging up. The numbers aren’t exploding, but the direction is very clear.
The Middle East ceasefire remains fragile, and the Russia-Ukraine stalemate continues, so safe-haven flows may pop up intermittently. Don’t mistake volatility for trend.
Uncle Twelve’s view: the easing direction hasn’t changed, October is a data-sensitive period, and don’t go fully loaded into positions before CPI — keep some ammo for the numbers. Assets like $BTC will follow liquidity expectations; U.S. stocks should watch consumption, and Treasuries should watch CPI.
Don’t be afraid — just do it, but do it at the right time 👍
#宏观 #美联储 #十二叔