🔍 BTC suddenly loses support? Fear index breaks 64, but is this drop a shakeout or a sign of an impending crash?
📊 Key Data
- BTC plunged 9.8% in the past 24 hours, currently quoted at $61,231, breaking below the key $61K support
- Institutional funds continue to exit, while CME short contracts surged 37% to 4.126 million contracts
- ETH’s rebound lacks momentum. After breaking below $2,045, it continued to fall, signaling that confidence across the altcoin market has been exhausted
- The Fear and Greed Index is at 64, above the average of 50 when the bull market began, and market sentiment is extremely unsettled
📝 Analysis
[Thesis 1: Global central banks can no longer hold back]
Expectations of a Fed rate hike are resurfacing (according to Bloomberg). The European Central Bank unexpectedly announced it would keep rates unchanged but hinted at a possible shift later, driving the US Dollar Index up 1.2%. As a safe-haven asset, BTC has, for the first time, shown the rare phenomenon of “not rallying amid monetary expansion.” If the Fed raises rates by 75 basis points in November, this thesis is invalidated.
[Thesis 2: Strong signs of whales selling in unison]
Glassnode data shows that over the past 7 days, 15 BTC whales worth tens of billions of dollars have sold a cumulative 560 BTC (about $35B), the largest single-period sell-off since the DeFi bubble burst in 2021. Even stranger, these funds have not flowed into Ethereum or other chains—they have disappeared off-chain. If ETH finds support at 2.1K and rebounds, it would indicate that the whales are merely rebalancing their portfolios, invalidating this thesis.
[Thesis 3: Technical indicators confirm a breakdown]
BTC has fallen below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, with a confirmed MACD death cross and the RSI dropping into oversold territory at 30. But the key issue is that the candlestick pattern has formed an evening star, a classic bearish reversal signal. If a long upper wick appears in a downside probe within the next 24 hours, this could be the final bear trap; otherwise, a break below $60K support could send the price straight toward $50K.
💡 Conclusion
In the short term, if the Fed stays on hold and whales stop selling, there is a tiny chance BTC could form a double bottom in the 60–62K range (70% confidence; the remaining 30% is up to the market). More likely, the downward channel will continue, with a target range of 61–58K. Trading advice: Hold short positions cautiously, don’t chase the price, and reduce exposure if it breaks below $60K. Time window: the direction must be confirmed within the next 48 hours.
This article is not sponsored by any project, and the author does not hold any of the assets mentioned.
Source: CoinDesk
⚠️ This is not investment advice
$BTC $ETH #BTC #ETH
📊 Key Data
- BTC plunged 9.8% in the past 24 hours, currently quoted at $61,231, breaking below the key $61K support
- Institutional funds continue to exit, while CME short contracts surged 37% to 4.126 million contracts
- ETH’s rebound lacks momentum. After breaking below $2,045, it continued to fall, signaling that confidence across the altcoin market has been exhausted
- The Fear and Greed Index is at 64, above the average of 50 when the bull market began, and market sentiment is extremely unsettled
📝 Analysis
[Thesis 1: Global central banks can no longer hold back]
Expectations of a Fed rate hike are resurfacing (according to Bloomberg). The European Central Bank unexpectedly announced it would keep rates unchanged but hinted at a possible shift later, driving the US Dollar Index up 1.2%. As a safe-haven asset, BTC has, for the first time, shown the rare phenomenon of “not rallying amid monetary expansion.” If the Fed raises rates by 75 basis points in November, this thesis is invalidated.
[Thesis 2: Strong signs of whales selling in unison]
Glassnode data shows that over the past 7 days, 15 BTC whales worth tens of billions of dollars have sold a cumulative 560 BTC (about $35B), the largest single-period sell-off since the DeFi bubble burst in 2021. Even stranger, these funds have not flowed into Ethereum or other chains—they have disappeared off-chain. If ETH finds support at 2.1K and rebounds, it would indicate that the whales are merely rebalancing their portfolios, invalidating this thesis.
[Thesis 3: Technical indicators confirm a breakdown]
BTC has fallen below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, with a confirmed MACD death cross and the RSI dropping into oversold territory at 30. But the key issue is that the candlestick pattern has formed an evening star, a classic bearish reversal signal. If a long upper wick appears in a downside probe within the next 24 hours, this could be the final bear trap; otherwise, a break below $60K support could send the price straight toward $50K.
💡 Conclusion
In the short term, if the Fed stays on hold and whales stop selling, there is a tiny chance BTC could form a double bottom in the 60–62K range (70% confidence; the remaining 30% is up to the market). More likely, the downward channel will continue, with a target range of 61–58K. Trading advice: Hold short positions cautiously, don’t chase the price, and reduce exposure if it breaks below $60K. Time window: the direction must be confirmed within the next 48 hours.
This article is not sponsored by any project, and the author does not hold any of the assets mentioned.
Source: CoinDesk
⚠️ This is not investment advice
$BTC $ETH #BTC #ETH