🦅 The Fed released its meeting minutes: the hawks “were late to crow,” and a sudden October U-turn! 🚗💨
The Fed’s September meeting minutes struck a very hawkish tone, with 16 of 18 officials calling for continued rate hikes through the end of the year. Markets were confused at first, but quickly realized: wait, isn’t the Fed already “way behind the curve”?
Since that meeting, U.S. inflation has fallen (PCE at 3.4%) and employment has deteriorated (only 29,000). And so, hashtag #fedminutesfocusonoctoberpause took center stage! Traders quickly bet with 80% odds that the Fed would have to “soften its tone” and pause rate hikes in October. But the outlook for December remains bleak and hard to predict if inflation rises again.

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