$AAOIB breaks to a new low, volume collapses—don’t rush to catch a falling knife
$AAOIB plunged to a new daily low today, falling 6.11%. The 4-hour chart also kept trending downward, closing near 118.5, with each rebound weaker than the last.
What concerns me most is the volume. Over the past four hours, trading volume in the last two hours was 75.93% lower than in the first two. What does that tell us? No one is willing to step in and buy at this level. The rebound is also happening on shrinking volume. In the last four 15-minute candles, the highs kept slipping—from 119.09 to 118.77. Each bounce is weaker, and 119.9 has become near-term resistance.
The macro backdrop isn’t helping either. U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw $485 million in net outflows in a single day—the largest daily outflow since June—signaling that money is moving out. Bitcoin has also fallen below 83,000, while oil prices jumped on news from Iran. Risk appetite is shrinking across the board. In this kind of environment, smaller coins are often the first to get hit.
My view is straightforward: $AAOIB looks bearish in the short term. Support is at 117.8. If it can’t hold there, the next leg down could be faster. The invalidation level is 121.6. Only if price gets back above and holds that level will I accept that the short-term bearish case has been overturned.
At this level, don’t get lured in by a small bounce. Wait for volume to return and for price to reclaim key levels before talking about a bullish move. Until then, those trying to catch the falling knife will likely get hurt again.
This is only my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.
$AAOIB plunged to a new daily low today, falling 6.11%. The 4-hour chart also kept trending downward, closing near 118.5, with each rebound weaker than the last.
What concerns me most is the volume. Over the past four hours, trading volume in the last two hours was 75.93% lower than in the first two. What does that tell us? No one is willing to step in and buy at this level. The rebound is also happening on shrinking volume. In the last four 15-minute candles, the highs kept slipping—from 119.09 to 118.77. Each bounce is weaker, and 119.9 has become near-term resistance.
The macro backdrop isn’t helping either. U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw $485 million in net outflows in a single day—the largest daily outflow since June—signaling that money is moving out. Bitcoin has also fallen below 83,000, while oil prices jumped on news from Iran. Risk appetite is shrinking across the board. In this kind of environment, smaller coins are often the first to get hit.
My view is straightforward: $AAOIB looks bearish in the short term. Support is at 117.8. If it can’t hold there, the next leg down could be faster. The invalidation level is 121.6. Only if price gets back above and holds that level will I accept that the short-term bearish case has been overturned.
At this level, don’t get lured in by a small bounce. Wait for volume to return and for price to reclaim key levels before talking about a bullish move. Until then, those trying to catch the falling knife will likely get hurt again.
This is only my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.